Soft US data stokes recession fears | FX Research

A round of discouraging survey data out of the US on Tuesday has fueled more selling of the US dollar as the market prices in increased odds for recession. Philly Fed services and consumer confidence polls plunged to post-pandemic lows, while consumer expectations faltered on worry over personal finances. US equities, on the other hand, remained in demand—perhaps feeling good about the implication of the softer data in that it will invite an even more dovish, investor-friendly Fed reaction.

Of course, investors are also still worrying about the state of US tariffs and trade, though we have also seen tensions alleviated somewhat on this front in recent days on the news that tariffs will be more targeted.

Key standouts on Wednesday's calendar come from UK inflation data, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations, and some ECB speak.