S&P blow off top or 20% correction

The S&P 500 has been trading within an ascending wedge since the liquidity crisis in march 2020. We are now nearing the end of this trading range and if price opens and closes a daily candle above or below our trend lines that would give confirmation to the breakout or breakdown. More often than not I would expect this pattern to break down with the measured move coming in around 3607 which is confluent with the .382 fib retracement. If this is the case I would expect the correction to last around 3-5 months. If, however, price breaks to the upside I would expect a short-term blow off top to occur with a provisional target of around 5347, followed by a large correction.