Long term S&P500 Outlook

2022年2月3日

This is just an idea that I am posting that may or may not pan out. It is not financial or investment advice. I am definitely not saying this is the way forward but as I was tinkering one night, I somehow came up with this, and the more I looked at it, the more it made sense.

Using trend lines we have a potential rising wedge. Then I measured some fibs and copied a previous pattern to fit the PA that one might expect to happen in a rising wedge. I also added a trend-based fib extension. As you can see there is a measured move in the final wave to a -.236 which also aligns with the 1.618 from the fib extension. If this is indeed a rising wedge then we will see a choppy path over the 2020s upward until eventually, the bias would favor a massive crash or bear market. You can also see the potential pivot points based on ABCD measured move series would align well with October/November of election cycle years. This isn't a statement about who will win or anything but election cycles also mark budget cycles ie; fiscal policy so they tend to be natural pivots or continuations based on the flavor of the day.

Will it pan out like this or similar to this? I guess we'll have to wait a few years to see.