The S&P 500 
SPX has made a series of new all-time closing and intra-day highs in recent days as Wall Street staged a remarkable comeback from the April lows that followed President Donald Trump's announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs. Does fundamental and technical analysis say the key index could go higher from here ... or pull back?
Let's check it out:
The S&P 500's Fundamental Analysis
The SPX fell more than 21% intraday in less than seven weeks between its Feb. 19 peak and its April 7 low as Trump rolled out his plan for big tariffs on foreign imports.
Many investors feared that high import duties -- coupled with foreign retaliatory tariffs on American exports -- would boost U.S. inflation and unemployment at the same time, creating "stagflation."
But about a week after Trump rolled out the "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, the president paused much of the plan for 90 days to allow for trade talks with other countries.
Risk-on assets quickly started to come back as Wall Street began to think deals with trading partners might blossom. So far, only the United Kingdom, China and Vietnam have played ball, but that's been good enough for many investors.
Meanwhile, consumer-level U.S. inflation has largely been beaten back (at least for now), and Trump has had other economic victories as well.
For example, his "Big, Beautiful Bill" of tax cuts and spending changes recently passed into law, offering what many see as multiple pro-growth provisions.
True, the Congressional Budget Office warned that the Big, Beautiful Bill could add some $3.3 trillion to the U.S. government's already huge deficits over the next decade. However, the agency's projections didn't include $2.8 trillion of expected revenues over the next 10 years from Trump's tariffs.
The CBO also chose to model almost no economic growth over the next decade, which probably isn't very realistic.
Of course, it's still unclear whether Wall Street has already priced in all of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" potential positives, or whether the measure's tax cuts and deregulation will have their desired economic effects.
Similarly, we don't know whether there are any more bilateral trade deals around the corner, or whether the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates -- which could boost stocks by making bond and money-market yields less attractive.
The S&P 500's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at the SPX's chart going back some four months and running through midday Tuesday:
Readers will see that the S&P 500 has been in a clear uptrend for the past three months, as denoted by the orange- and purple-shaded areas above.
The index has colored neatly within the lines, finding support at the lower trendline in mid-June. Additionally, support came at the S&P 500's 21-day Exponential Moving average, or "EMA, marked with a green line above.
More recently, the S&P 500 also enjoyed the benefits of what we call a "golden cross." That's when the index's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line) crosses above a rising 200-day SMA (marked with a red line). That's historically a bullish technical signal for the index.
The S&P 500 also experienced "Day One" bullish reversals on May 27 and June 23. Those "Day Ones" were then confirmed on June 3 and June 26, respectively.
A "Day One" reversal occurs when an index reversed direction up or down on increased trading volume, followed by a "Confirmation Day" that moves the market in the same direction as the reversal on increased volume as well. That combination typically signifies changes in an index's short-term trend.
Now, astute readers might notice that the S&P 500's June 23 "Day One" reversal occurred on decreased day-over-day trading volume.
However, that's misleading because the market day just prior to June 23 was a "triple-witching" day, which technical analysts therefore discard.
Readers should also understand that there must be at least a one-day pause between a "Day One" reversal and a "Confirmation Day." Otherwise, technical analysts will consider both days to represent one move, and we wouldn't have a volume-based technical confirmation.
Next, let's look at the SPX's chart going back to January and running through midday Tuesday:
This chart shows that the S&P 500 is in danger of putting in what's called a "Double Top" pattern of bearish reversal, denoted with the red boxes above marked "Top 1" and "Top 2." With all that's going on politically and geopolitically, that's a concern.
On top of that, Q2 earnings season begins next week, and analysts' consensus is for rather paltry 5% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 component companies as a whole.
In addition, the S&P 500 has a conflicting Relative Strength Index ("RSI") and Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD").
The index's RSI, marked with gray lines at the above chart's top, is practically at technically overbought levels.
But at the same time, the daily MACD (marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is showing signs of weakness.
The histogram of S&P 500's 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is now below the zero-bound, which is historically a short-term bearish technical signal.
On top of that, the 12-day EMA (the black line) is threatening to cross under the 26-day EMA (the gold line). This hasn't happened yet, but would be a short-term bearish signal if it did.
Add it all up and the S&P 500 is showing a mixed technical picture right now despite trading at or close to all-time record highs.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in S&P 500-related ETFs or mutual funds at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
SPX has made a series of new all-time closing and intra-day highs in recent days as Wall Street staged a remarkable comeback from the April lows that followed President Donald Trump's announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs. Does fundamental and technical analysis say the key index could go higher from here ... or pull back?Let's check it out:
The S&P 500's Fundamental Analysis
The SPX fell more than 21% intraday in less than seven weeks between its Feb. 19 peak and its April 7 low as Trump rolled out his plan for big tariffs on foreign imports.
Many investors feared that high import duties -- coupled with foreign retaliatory tariffs on American exports -- would boost U.S. inflation and unemployment at the same time, creating "stagflation."
But about a week after Trump rolled out the "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, the president paused much of the plan for 90 days to allow for trade talks with other countries.
Risk-on assets quickly started to come back as Wall Street began to think deals with trading partners might blossom. So far, only the United Kingdom, China and Vietnam have played ball, but that's been good enough for many investors.
Meanwhile, consumer-level U.S. inflation has largely been beaten back (at least for now), and Trump has had other economic victories as well.
For example, his "Big, Beautiful Bill" of tax cuts and spending changes recently passed into law, offering what many see as multiple pro-growth provisions.
True, the Congressional Budget Office warned that the Big, Beautiful Bill could add some $3.3 trillion to the U.S. government's already huge deficits over the next decade. However, the agency's projections didn't include $2.8 trillion of expected revenues over the next 10 years from Trump's tariffs.
The CBO also chose to model almost no economic growth over the next decade, which probably isn't very realistic.
Of course, it's still unclear whether Wall Street has already priced in all of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" potential positives, or whether the measure's tax cuts and deregulation will have their desired economic effects.
Similarly, we don't know whether there are any more bilateral trade deals around the corner, or whether the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates -- which could boost stocks by making bond and money-market yields less attractive.
The S&P 500's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at the SPX's chart going back some four months and running through midday Tuesday:
Readers will see that the S&P 500 has been in a clear uptrend for the past three months, as denoted by the orange- and purple-shaded areas above.
The index has colored neatly within the lines, finding support at the lower trendline in mid-June. Additionally, support came at the S&P 500's 21-day Exponential Moving average, or "EMA, marked with a green line above.
More recently, the S&P 500 also enjoyed the benefits of what we call a "golden cross." That's when the index's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line) crosses above a rising 200-day SMA (marked with a red line). That's historically a bullish technical signal for the index.
The S&P 500 also experienced "Day One" bullish reversals on May 27 and June 23. Those "Day Ones" were then confirmed on June 3 and June 26, respectively.
A "Day One" reversal occurs when an index reversed direction up or down on increased trading volume, followed by a "Confirmation Day" that moves the market in the same direction as the reversal on increased volume as well. That combination typically signifies changes in an index's short-term trend.
Now, astute readers might notice that the S&P 500's June 23 "Day One" reversal occurred on decreased day-over-day trading volume.
However, that's misleading because the market day just prior to June 23 was a "triple-witching" day, which technical analysts therefore discard.
Readers should also understand that there must be at least a one-day pause between a "Day One" reversal and a "Confirmation Day." Otherwise, technical analysts will consider both days to represent one move, and we wouldn't have a volume-based technical confirmation.
Next, let's look at the SPX's chart going back to January and running through midday Tuesday:
This chart shows that the S&P 500 is in danger of putting in what's called a "Double Top" pattern of bearish reversal, denoted with the red boxes above marked "Top 1" and "Top 2." With all that's going on politically and geopolitically, that's a concern.
On top of that, Q2 earnings season begins next week, and analysts' consensus is for rather paltry 5% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 component companies as a whole.
In addition, the S&P 500 has a conflicting Relative Strength Index ("RSI") and Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD").
The index's RSI, marked with gray lines at the above chart's top, is practically at technically overbought levels.
But at the same time, the daily MACD (marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is showing signs of weakness.
The histogram of S&P 500's 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is now below the zero-bound, which is historically a short-term bearish technical signal.
On top of that, the 12-day EMA (the black line) is threatening to cross under the 26-day EMA (the gold line). This hasn't happened yet, but would be a short-term bearish signal if it did.
Add it all up and the S&P 500 is showing a mixed technical picture right now despite trading at or close to all-time record highs.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in S&P 500-related ETFs or mutual funds at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
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