THE Bear Market Bottom Update

2023年4月9日

Last year on July 4th I published a timeline of the overall bear market cycle (Attached below in Related Ideas and titled "Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELY"). This will provide an update on a chart that can be reflected on in the future by “playing the bars” for full veracity. The projection was made in early July when the market was trading at 3825 and the low at that point had been 3636.87. Market analysts were calling stating the bottom was in and the market will continue up beyond 4818. My analysis said otherwise. Some believe new market highs (above 4818) are near, while I know the hurt has not even happened yet. After the early summer of 2023, I still expect an overall decline to the end of 2024 or as late as the first quarter of 2025.

The end of Cycle wave A was initially projected for October 18, 2022 with a low around 3175. The actual low was 3491 on October 13. Cycle wave B was projected to top around July 18, 2023 near 4600. With updated data, I have dropped the top for Cycle wave B to 4400 and sped up the end date to mid-June 2023. Cycle wave C’s bottom was projected for March 13, 2025 around 2400. While I still have a projected bottom at 2400, this is likely to change once Cycle wave B is complete and each Primary wave inside of Cycle C completes as well. The earlier end dates for Cycles A and B have moved the final bear market bottom toward the end of 2024 at this time.

Continue to follow as we muddle through this bear market where there is always something to be gained.