S&P 500: Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?

Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?

Zoom out. Clear the noise.

We might still sweep the lows, but when viewed on the weekly timeframe, this current S&P 500 move looks more like a healthy valuation correction than a structural breakdown.

Let’s break it down by the numbers using fractal analysis:

🟩 March 2020 (COVID Crash):
▪️~35% drop
▪️V-shaped recovery
▪️Oversold RSI bounce

🟨 2022 Bear Market:
▪️~27% correction
▪️Multi-month wedge consolidation
▪️Eventually led to an upside breakout

🟦 Now (2025):
▪️~21% correction so far
▪️Retesting long-term trendline
▪️RSI in familiar oversold zone

📊 Fractal Math:

- From 35% to 27% = 22.86% decrease
- From 27% to 21% = 22.22% decrease

Both legs show a consistent ~22% drop in correction depth suggesting bearish momentum is weakening with each cycle. Currently bouncing off the1844 days of support.
Is this the bottom? Will there be relief?

🔁 If this pattern holds:
- We could see a short-term sweep or deviation under recent lows.
- But structure favours a potential recovery from this zone, unless the trendline breaks decisively.

📌 Watch levels closely. Timing matters.

🧠 What’s your take, is this another “buy the dip” moment?

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