SPX Roadmap Update Feb 2018

已更新

Still tailwinds to potential HH

註釋

2nd estimate GDP YOY at 2.5% which is 6th quarter of acceleration with final sales within US at 2.8% YOY and investment spending rebounding strongly with Trump election

註釋

Period of consolidation so far

註釋

So we are looking at various scenarios here: 1) Bullish case for a min low 2900s using the 2015 1H analog which was similar in terms of economic dynamics plus QE stopping 2) Bearish lower low which is part of Wave B of larger wave C. Currently 60:40 Bullish scenario

註釋

Meant to say Wave B of larger Wave ABC

註釋

So next week SPX should make a higher low vs 2530 in this bottoming process. Do not subscribe at all to the 1987 analogs floating around

註釋

Looking for 2560 at worst for higher low next week

註釋

Next week very important as speculative exposure continues to unwind while hedging continues to increase while SPX is rangebound/triangle. This is gradually positive

註釋

Next important level is 2820/2860 the gap. Now, this could be a B Wave also, so tricky next 2 weeks