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S&P guess is pullback 4040 (20SMA) with rally to 4400 (200SMA)

Looking at my technical analysis, we were due for a rally last week after double bottoming at the support of the down channel. Major US holiday weekend with low volume are usually times to see these kinds of rallies. I would expect the market to retest the gains made now that traders will be back, hence my guess at a retest of the April 5th, 2021 gap up area (gray bar) around 4040. That area has been key support and resistance since May 2nd. If the S&P can find support, which seems likely since it has both the gray region and the 20 day VMWA to act as support, then I would expect to see a push to the top of the red channel around 4400. The 4400 level around mid-July would see both a test of the 200 day SMA, the down channel, and the blue trend line all as resistance. This also aligns with a strong trading area as shown by the orange line. After that, I can only assume that we will resume the down trend. I cannot see any reason for the S&P to hit an ATH in the current environment. That level of FOMO/MOMO is gone in the market. IMO the headwinds of higher interest rates, inflation, and easing of QE will drive the market lower (3600), maybe even much lower (3200), before we start to see a bottom.

1W