SPY wait and see
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We have a bear market bias, however there is a uptrend we are in. How long remains to be seen. We can only enter short once we see evidence of failure. I highlighted a region in 2008 that might be similar, but there are a
number of differences such as how the current market is much closer to the 50 period moving average. We can see that the market participants give bears very little wriggle room despite the heavy bearishness.
Evidence of failure will simply be a break of a support. If the market continues above 380 then backtest 380 as support and succeeds then we must take the bear market off the table for now as the uptrend will continue. Likewise any pullbacks that get treated as supported and not fail, then we must mark that on the chart. Short on failures. Market will love to bleed out shorts and puts.
number of differences such as how the current market is much closer to the 50 period moving average. We can see that the market participants give bears very little wriggle room despite the heavy bearishness.
Evidence of failure will simply be a break of a support. If the market continues above 380 then backtest 380 as support and succeeds then we must take the bear market off the table for now as the uptrend will continue. Likewise any pullbacks that get treated as supported and not fail, then we must mark that on the chart. Short on failures. Market will love to bleed out shorts and puts.
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