SPY at Critical Resistance – Breakout or Pullback Ahead?

📊 SPY Monthly Macro Outlook 📊

Key Observations:
1️⃣ Long-Term Uptrend Intact – Despite corrections, SPY remains in a strong bullish trend, respecting the multi-year trendline since 2009.
2️⃣ Historical Pullback & Recovery – The 2022 market correction (-26%) found strong demand in the highlighted red zone (around $480-$500), leading to a powerful reversal.
3️⃣ Resistance Levels in Play – Price is currently testing key resistance levels at $565, $586, and $609. A rejection here could lead to a healthy pullback before continuation.
4️⃣ Future Outlook – If price consolidates and holds above $565, we could see an attempt to break $609, with the long-term trajectory targeting $700+ in coming years.

Trade Plan:
🔹 Bullish Scenario – A breakout above $609 could lead to price discovery, targeting $650-$700 in 2026-2027.
🔹 Bearish Scenario – A rejection at $565-$609 could trigger a retrace to $523 or $480, offering a buy-the-dip opportunity.
🔹 Invalidation – If SPY loses $480 support, the bullish thesis weakens, and deeper downside may be in play.

📈 The trend is your friend, but expect volatility at these levels! Do you see a breakout coming or a healthy pullback first? Drop your thoughts below! 👇

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