SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06

📈 SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06
Bias: Moderately Bullish
Timeframe: 3–4 weeks
Catalysts: Strong institutional flows, trade talk optimism, solid jobs report
Trade Type: Long equity position

🧠 Model Summary Table
Model Bias Entry Stop Loss Take Profit Holding Period Confidence
DS Moderately Bullish $600.02 $595.54 $618.02 3 weeks 65%
LM Moderately Bullish $598.50 $586.70 $616–618 3–4 weeks 75%
GK Strongly Bullish $600.02 $592.00 $610.00 4 weeks 72%
GM Moderately Bullish ~$600.50 $587.50 $627.50 3–4 weeks 70%
CD Moderately Bullish $600–600.50 $585.00 $620 / $635 3–4 weeks 72%

✅ Consensus: SPY is in a bullish trend across timeframes
⚠️ Disagreements: MACD momentum and entry/pullback levels

🔍 Technical & Sentiment Summary
Trend: SPY above 10/50/200 EMAs on all models

RSI: 60–61 → bullish but not overbought

MACD: Mostly positive, DS cautious on daily histogram

Support Levels: $591.06, $595.54, $597.26

Resistance Zones: $600.83, $605.21, $610

VIX: 17.6 (declining), supports risk-on sentiment

News: Trade talk optimism and strong jobs data fueling momentum

✅ Final Trade Setup
Parameter Value
Instrument SPY
Strategy LONG
Entry Price $600.00
Stop Loss $588.00
Take Profit $625.00
Position Size 83 shares (1% risk on $100K)
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 70%

💡 Rationale: Aligned bullish signals across timeframes, falling VIX, and strong macro sentiment favor a trend continuation move toward $625. Position sized for conservative risk management.

⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations
MACD divergence could signal near-term stall

Resistance zone at $605 may act as a cap

Macro volatility: Strong jobs could raise rate expectations

VIX Watch: A spike above 20 could reverse market trend

Exit Protocol: Consider closing if SPY closes below the 10-day EMA (~$591)


📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT
🎯 Instrument: SPY
📈 Direction: LONG
💰 Entry Price: 600.0
🛑 Stop Loss: 588.0
🎯 Take Profit: 625.0
📊 Size: 83 shares
💪 Confidence: 70%
⏰ Entry Timing: Open