INDEXES: Strength of the Bear

The 8-year cycle from 1995 to 2003 ended when the Dot-com burst happened. The 6-year cycle form 2003 to 2009 came tumbling down with the recession caused by the banking crisis. The 7-year Recovery cycle from 2009 to 2016 was driven by Quantitative Easing and Zero Rate policy. Driving the present downturn in the Indexes is upward pressure on bank rates. Unless there is some further trigger, such as serious trade war, or serious British collapse caused by a hard BREXIT, it is likely that the downturn will go as far as the 10-year Support Line only (SPV to 250). So: downturn to 10-year Support Line anyway, but if serious trade upset, all the way to 20-year Support Line (SPV to 220).