Look for
SPY to unravel over the next few weeks with a
VIX spike that sends it down to $291. My analysis is that ~290 is the completion of this bearish cycle. It also lines up with support established in 2018 and 2019. Down there is a long term buy, but it really could go as low as 155 in an extreme bear case (would need further exogenous shocks in the macroeconomy).
All time high = $480
February Low = $410
(A) WAVE: 480/410 = 17% drop
March high = $462
June low = $362
(B) WAVE: 462/362= 28% drop
28 / 17 = 1.65
28 (1.65) = (C) WAVE: ~45% estimated 3rd wave down from August highs ($432), which sends SPY to the 290s
All time high = $480
February Low = $410
(A) WAVE: 480/410 = 17% drop
March high = $462
June low = $362
(B) WAVE: 462/362= 28% drop
28 / 17 = 1.65
28 (1.65) = (C) WAVE: ~45% estimated 3rd wave down from August highs ($432), which sends SPY to the 290s
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