2 Most Probable Elliott Wave Counts for SPY- Both Say Sell

2018年4月30日

SPY has been very choppy recently, and there are lots of competing Elliott Wave count scenarios. My top 2 scenarios are bearish.

Count 1 is that we are in Wave C)) down, and so far have had a 1)-2) and a1-2. It's not clear if we are starting wave 3 or another 1-2. I'm leaning towards 3.

Count 2 is a B)) wave triangle, and are beginning Wave C)) down. Both 1 & 2 will have similar results.

Alternative bullish scenarios, which I consider less likely are the what is labeled 1) on the chart is actually wave C)), and the correction has ended. The sloppy overlapping moves up make this unlikely. The other bullish alternative is that since the ATH, we have been in a IVth wave triangle, which has completed, and have begun wave V up. Also unlikely due to the sloppy action to the upside.

That leaves me bearish, looking for new lows, well below wave A)).

2018年5月1日

註釋

I believe the triangle is the best fit to describe the overlapping subwaves. So we are currently in the first minor wave 1 down, of wave C)) from the completed B)) wave triangle. After a playable wave 2 bounce, which should occur today, and maybe tomorrow, we should see some violent down action for wave 3.