SPY Projections / FOMC Meeting

2022年3月13日

Analysis done on 30 minute candles. The time has finally come for financial markets to face the event that we've been anticipating for months. On Tuesday and Wednesday we're expecting to hear from The Fed to confirm their interest rate hike, which has been in the talks since last November. Historically markets tend to throw a tantrum at a time of an interest rate hike because higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money for both the consumer and businesses, which slows down spending. The pressure of raising interests due to a 40 year high inflation is also accompanied with the geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine situation so The Fed have to be careful to not raise interest rates too high too fast. This upcoming rate hike was announced back in November, which was the exact time we saw markets begin their correction so going into this week the focus is on how markets react to the official rate hike. Markets have a history of reacting to an event before it happens and then beginning a reversal when it actually takes place, which is not guaranteed to be the case here, but it's worth keeping an open mind to it. Going into this week our main index to watch is SPY (S&P500) with 410.00 being the most critical support. The downtrend that markets started in the last four months came to a low of 410.00 and found support, which is why we need markets to hold that level, if they break then we may decline to 400.00. To the upside we'd like to see markets move back above 430.00 and 440.00, but they won't be back in bullish territory until we're back above the 458.00 mark. Overall the recent correction has been a much needed one for many stocks that were flying too close to the sun and trading at a highly overvalued multiple, experienced investors are glad to see the bubble burst and markets restoring true value.