SPY: Weekly view

2018年7月12日

Market is likely to rally until October and top at $300.21, likely related to the midterm elections generating volatility by then.
Options traders are net bearish, currently, so I think we have ample room to go up despite concerns about the trade war (most likely overrated) and rates rising.
As timwest pointed out many times, in this case, rates will rise but overall, investing in US equities is attractive so likely the demand for liquidity to finance new projects, etc. thanks to the new tax law will be a cause of rates going higher as well, but not a reason to turn bearish on equities when the economy is set to grow.
IF this weekly trend pans out, which seems likely, we may have a good way to time the top, and by then, we should see traders turn bullish on stocks once more, like it happened at the top in February.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

2018年7月18日

註釋

2018年7月31日

註釋

#SPY forecast is on track, let's see how it acts going forward, but it's clear the correction we suffered ended

2018年8月4日

註釋

On track.

2018年10月4日

註釋

#VIX spiking here, if it goes a bit higher we may get a short term buy signal in #SPY. Since sentiment is negative, and underlying fundamentals remain long term bullish, bearish signals might only cause a sideways drift and not a full fledged bearish run

2018年10月4日

手動結束交易

I'd reccomend to exit longs.