S&P Weekly Recap: Rally Falters Amid Lack of Conviction
Last week’s market action delivered a reversal in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of the rally that had persisted since the so-called "Trump rally." The week began slowly, with the market testing buyers’ conviction to push prices higher. After confirming a lack of such conviction, sellers stepped in, driving prices sharply lower. As suggested in my previous recap, 585 (VAH) provided temporary support, and the week closed near this critical level.
Interestingly, most major sectors participated in the downward move, aligning with the broader market trend. However, XLF (Financials) stood out as the exception, managing to post gains despite the sell-off. This divergence suggests that there is still buying interest, with money continuing to flow selectively into the market.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to hold 585 and attempt to fill Friday’s gap. Failure to do so, with the price returning to the 568-585 range, would indicate that the rally is nearing exhaustion. While this would not immediately signal a transition into a bear market, it would mark a notable shift in sentiment. The 568 level remains critical for buyers; as long as it holds, the broader uptrend stays intact, and bulls maintain the upper hand. Meaning that I keep "bullish" outlook.
This week, the market’s attention will be on NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday. While the previous report didn’t cause much volatility, traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could influence market momentum.
Interestingly, most major sectors participated in the downward move, aligning with the broader market trend. However, XLF (Financials) stood out as the exception, managing to post gains despite the sell-off. This divergence suggests that there is still buying interest, with money continuing to flow selectively into the market.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to hold 585 and attempt to fill Friday’s gap. Failure to do so, with the price returning to the 568-585 range, would indicate that the rally is nearing exhaustion. While this would not immediately signal a transition into a bear market, it would mark a notable shift in sentiment. The 568 level remains critical for buyers; as long as it holds, the broader uptrend stays intact, and bulls maintain the upper hand. Meaning that I keep "bullish" outlook.
This week, the market’s attention will be on NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday. While the previous report didn’t cause much volatility, traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could influence market momentum.
註釋
this looks like a distribution pattern. Coupled with the relative weakness in QQQ, it is a warning sign for buyers. Short-term continuation of downside auction is likely.
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