Bearish long term outlook for SP500

SPY


First post. Looking for input...

My read of the situation:
- Western world is guaranteed for 2-3 weeks
- Tourism and travel has ground to a halt
- A reduction in travel typically means reduction in commerce
- Public will go into survival mode and will reduce / stop spending, and large, frivolous, and/or luxury purchases are almost out of the question
- Human habits take two weeks to form
- Global markets are not buying government action and central bank stimulus
- Small business (e.g., bars, cafes, etc.) will struggle to stay in business, which translates to layoffs and closures
- Large businesses will start feeling the pinch, which translates to layoffs, additional corporate debt, bailouts, and closures
- Demand for commodities will fall further
- Eventually, travel restrictions will start to be lifted, but the just because people can travel, does not mean they will
- People that still have jobs will return to work, but lives will not return to normal, because of new reality and newly-formed spending habits

One month candle chart:
- CCI just entered bear territory and is likely to spend some time there
- RSI has lots of room to go down
- ADX and DI, bears on top with momentum coming off a low and increasing
- Trading / selling volume has yet to pick up

Ideal buy scenario:
- SP500 walks lower bollinger band down (like pre 2008)
- Weekly and monthly RSI triggers a buy signal
- Lower wick of 6 month candle dips below lower bollinger band
- CCI exits bear territory on monthly candle chart
- Signs of support at 181, if/when 233 breaks