Spy

Breakout on megaphone happened Friday..
Could've played out as a rising wedge but bulls got their debt limit deal.
Similar situation happend with tech a couple of weeks ago.

Here's NQ
You see the Megaphone breakout and retest before rallying higher?

From a different perspective NQ was showing a bearish rising Wedge. That Wedge tricked alot of bears.

So this week at some point I'm expecting spy to retest that megaphone breakout around 424.
If 424 holds then megaphone second stage is in play amd I like the long to 440. If you're unfamiliar with this pattern you can Google bullish megaphone pattern for more examples.

430 will be a tough area to breakthrough. 430 is the previous neckline for spy H&S. That neckline will now act as resistance. Any gap open near 430 without a pullback is a great short opportunity in my opinion.

Daily candle completely outside Bbands here. I'd expect a mix opener with Dow up , while spy and nasdaq either flat or red. I'll post some intra day levels tomorrow premarket
Watch ES to see if it breaks 4300.



Some bullish and Bearish weekly closes happened on some important Sectors.

Here's the bullish

XLV (Healthcare) - Finished with a bounce off support , Daily candles are 3 white solders, and weekly candle is a piercing pattern (Very bullish)

XLF - Bullflag with a major double bottom showing

XME (Metal stocks) - Falling wedge breakout

XLE (Energy)
Closed up at resistance, showing a possible double bottom with bullish divergence

Now the Bearish
XLK (Tech) and SMH (Chips)
Almost identical fawkery!

Pushed up to channel top, last Tuesday opener can didn't make any new Daily highs.
extremely Overbought. XLK Finished with a weekly bearish candle.
Aapl, MSFT, NVDA and all the other chips look bearish with the exception of Intel.

That horrible breadth we saw the last 2 months might get corrected in the coming Quarter if the above sectors rally like I think they will.
I'm not bearish on all tech for example,, They obviously want to close the gap left over on Meta and Nflx. tsla looks like it wants 230 minimum. They'll need to pump a few big tech names to counter any correction in Aapl,msft and NVDA.

IXIC Nasdaq
2 hour chart and rsi
I think Friday pop on tech index formed a head inside a rising wedge. I'll be looking for a hard flush by Tuesday on tech to complete the head . If this is a H&S then we could see a pop to form a right shoulder wed-thur before Fomc next week

評論:

Dow Jones futures YM..
Broke out of the white channel friday..
Not surprised oil futures are up.
Watch the defensive,cylicals and financials this week, Any dip there will be bought up.

Hit resistance 33,900 so far we either reverse it for the pullback tomorrow or it keeps going until redline

評論:

Aapl event later in the day 1p.m EST..
I think the best trading opportunity for the

Etfs will be the first 30min

Or

After aapl event..


I'm sticking with individual stocks today unless the spy tags 430 , then I'd look for shorts.

Bearish on chips
Bullish on Oil


Don't overstay if your 0dte, when the sectors are mixed like this it creates chop on the ETF...

429.00 upside
426.30 downside.


A break below 426 and we are headed for 424

5min chart

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356.50 that's the gap resistance on QQQ... unless it breaks that or the dow rallies , Spy won't be breaking 430..

Next big intra day move will come with aapl.

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Qqq 1hour chart

Ixic 1hour chart.

Both rising wedges. Looking for tech to start selling after today.

Aapl way to far outside Bbands whatever happens after the event , I expect selling tomorrow

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Spy 30min chart..
430 is the short area.
432 stop loss.
Tgt 426, 424
NOT FOR ODTE PURPOSES

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Spy 30min.. break in the wedge..
Bearish engulf 3 candles..
Should flush below 427.50

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Ixic broke its wedge support also following spy..

Hard flush below 13,200

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Here's the daily Nq megaphone again. Notice the next candle after that breakout is similar to the spy Daily candle today which is a inside bar / spinning top.

Within the next 2 days spy will retest that 424 and we'll see if it holds up...

Dow Jones

Pulled back with IWM , I thought it would retest breakout (White line) but it's flagging on the hourly.
Cylicals ,value, health may take the lead tomorrow

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You see the 1-2 hour money flow and CCi on Dow futures YM?

Wouldn't be surprised if they popped this up by Wed . I'm watching this back test

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Below 426 and we target 424

Above 428 and we retest 429.50

Between 426- 428 is all chop.

Small caps out performing. Friday top sectors are getting a delayed encore.

If dow breaks out of this flag . Things will ramp up.

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Alright guys so we got a retest on the rising wedge here on IXIC .
Low volume day, I expect a late date flush and or dump tomorrow

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Spy 15min..
Yesterday we fell out of a rising wedge and the price formed a smaller wedge (White) for a pop higher that I thought would take it to 429.50 again but the momentum has dropped and there's no volume. Still, we need to break 426 to see 424

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Qqq 15min.. same as IXIC..
Fell out of wedge yesterday and retested it today. Price has formed a H&S .. I think tech will dump hard below 353.00

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Pennant built on Spy 30min...

Dow retested breakout and bounced ..

We may not test 424. Still no serious long under 430 .. careful if you're short anything

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Es 1- 2hour chart...
Last 2 day trading range has formed a
Bearish diamond top

Bulls will just see a pennant

Price should break down or up before 11A.M est. So have patience with market direction.

As always , between 426-429 is chop.

Whether it breaks up or down , the chop should end today

評論:

Qqq
Resistance 356.50
Support - 353
Anything in between is chop and expect mix movements on tech stocks.

Spy
Resistance 429.60
Support - 426
Anything in between is chop and expect sector manipulation.

With that being said, let's go back to the NQ megaphone breakout and retest.

You can see the the first day after the breakout there was a spinning top.

The second day was a gap down followed by a buy up.

The 3rd day was where the selling started.

The spy so far has been moving exactly in the same way. Let's see if the selling starts today.

With the exception of tsla no tech has closed at any new weekly highs.
I'm still bearish on tech.

There is a major double bottom playing on non tech sectors and small caps.. I can't see Spy going back below 420 with IWM and XLF looking bullish ... So I'm sticking with 424 pullback target unless it breaks it.

評論:

Pennant move is completed.. Spy stuck at resistance 429.60..

IWM won't break 187 today..

In looking for a tech dump here and then a drop


Any short right here 431 stop loss

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Another retest and reject on QQQ rising wedge..
They dump it today

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The 21ema on the 1 hour spy is my next target

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You see how

Home depot
Boeing
Deere
Ups
Cat
Ulta
GS

All are up? Sector rotating..
Spy will be caught in a tug with tech dragging and cylicals pushing ..
Short tech

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My first target on QQQ is 351.13

It may dead cat bounce there..
If it doesn't 346 is next up

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Spy double top neckline or support. Will need to break this for the next leg down. If your 0dte you need to watch this because it has bounced once so far

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I'll be on later

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Spy hit my 1hour 21ema target and QQQ hit my 351 target...

May drop further or they may save it for tomorrow..

You have some major tech correcting now so I expect qqq to keep selling .

Next leg down starts once QQQ breaks 350... tech is leading the sell we must follow it

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IXIC (Nasdaq)
Looking for a 4% drop to play out Via H&S over the next week. I expect move to be done by next Friday. We've started our drop to form the head. I expect a dead cat bounce at 12,900 to rally and for the shoulder before the final dump

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Dow Jones 15min
.
Long as 33,590 holds

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Spy 15min chart.. big fawkery at 426 again plus 15min oversold.. expect a bounce

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Qqq bounced at that 349 gap support.. 15min also oversold.. look for a retest of 351

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The dow will probably test last Friday's highs tomorrow .

Banks , cylicals, and energy I think will outperform tech in a major way this coming Quarter.

The vix didn't do anything because there's no fear in the market, tech is just undergoing an old fashion long overdue correction..

Until QQQ breaks 349 I will be hard to short spy. Much better to short individual tech stocks.


I will say this, if following the NQ megaphone model, we should retest breakout on the 4th day which is tomorrow


I'll do a new post tomorrow ✌

評論:

Like I said over the weekend, tech looks bearish but the overall market breadth should improve.. Here's NYSE with a breakout yesterday and a follow through today. I'd be very surprised if they let spy fall back below 420

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Nq dropped late past night and bounced off support. Money flow oversold on 2/3 hour and so is the RSI.

Qqq looking for a test of 347.50. Go back to April 2022 and you'll see the price action I'm talking about. Last week we bounced in that area too! The 30min money flow is to oversold here, same with Amzn and MSFT. I think it would be a crappy time for new short entries at the open. I could see it test 347 maybe 346.50 then bounce back up to 349 or even 351 for a lower high

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Last 7 days of trading on spy has formed this small channel . Hourly indicators are neutral.

On the minutes you can see a range it has built up between 426.00 - 427.15..

Over 427 and we could pop back up to 429
Under 425.50 and we see 424...

I really don't like the trade setup here on the spy.. to tight of a range.

Only way I see 424 breaking is if QQQ breaks 346 and or the Dow dumps which I don't see it happening ..

Es also oversold on the 2hour chart.. possible bullish inverted H&S forming...


Risky to open any shorts today, IMO

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Qqq 15 min chart..
Falling wedge breakout.
Stuck a 351, over that and they push it to 353

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I don't think the Q's will break back over 353 . Look for the same stocks that are down today (Financials, energy,smallcaps) to be up tomorrow in the next installment of "Pass the baton"

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This is the setup I'm looking for on QQQ .. unless it breaks below 346 or rejects 353 , you have to be careful what tech you short. And even if it rejects 353 , it will been to chop for half a day to round the the Right shoulder

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When's the last time you saw bearish engulfing this big on QQQ, Amzn,Msft, and googl followed by a rally? Making a full out of alot of Technical analysis and traders...
Money flow and cci are the only thing that's still working right and that's only when it goes oversold 😆

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Don't short this yet.. let's see what happens at 429 again... I think they are range trading until Cpi and Rate decision next week . So they'll have to dump some sectors tomorrow to prevent a breakout.

Apple has a huge double bottom on the 30min.. over 181 and its headed back to ..185.. crazy because this was an obvious 3 blk crow reversal

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Notice , the more tech pullback the more they buy small caps and Financials.. Just passing the baton, same money , just switching positions. Gotta keep this thing range trading until Fomc

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Double top on the vix monthly chart with break below 14.
Looking for them to drop this to an 11 handle

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Here's QQQ zoomed out 5min Chart so you can see the price action.. like I said earlier , i think it's a Head n shoulder forming.

Looking for them to test 348-349 tomorrow

Stop loss 354. over 354 it's going to 357..

Only head and shoulder under support or break of 347

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Vix 1 hour chart...
Falling wedge.. don't get to horny yet bears, let's see what happens tomorrow

Will do a new post later