Elliott Wave top on SPY’s monthly chart

Technical Analysis:

Wave Structure (Elliott Wave)
• Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom.
• Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven.
• Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure.
• Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out).

Bearish Signals:
• Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior.
• Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion.
• (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows:
• Wave A targeting ~$420–440.
• Wave B dead cat bounce.
• Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement).

Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
• 0.382 = ~$450
• 0.5 = ~$390
• 0.618 = ~$340
These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing.

Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative:
• Sticky inflation
• Rising interest payments on U.S. debt
• Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime)
• Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors