mandevillean

Still a Mixed Picture on S&P 500 - But Leaning Negative

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
The ambiguity that emerged yesterday (see link below to my previous post) regarding the uptrend in the S&P 500             since Feb. 9 was not much clarified with today's action. The S&P 500             rallied in the morning, but then faltered into the afternoon. The 2700 level (equivalent to 270 on SPY             ) appears to be providing support. Two forays of that level were quickly reversed today.

On balance, however, the probabilities are leaning towards an end to the uptrend that began from the Feb. 9 lows. First, the two bounces from 270 support on SPY             today were weak. Second, if we zero in on the 15 minute chart, the 50 period MA is angling down. Third, momentum is flagging on the higher 60 minute time frame. And, fourth, the S&P 500             seems to be getting stymied by the 50 day moving average on the daily chart .

If you were to put a gun to my head and force me to take a position, I'd be short right now. Otherwise, I will be watching the price action develop with the expectation that a short trade set up is the more likely scenario to emerge.

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