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SPY Broke Wedge; Textbook Retracement: Rejection Imminent

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Chart says all. Broke channel on Bear Flag, pumped back up to TL, expect throwover. Textbook example:

Ref: Murphy; Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Fig 4.10a;

"Example of Rising Support Line becoming resistance. After it has been broken to the downside, usually a support TL will function as resistance on subsequent rallies."

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Look at the futures... thanks Trump! ...Moron...!

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Closed shorts and re-entered small position as index returned to curve. Gaps tend to fill and this was a big gap, wait a day to see if it retest TL for 2nd time; if this be trend change will know soon. Some EW charters project push to 3015-3055, of course anything is possible in this crazy market, IMO 297 will reject on TL; be careful fgs!

交易進行

We got a Hanging Man Doji. At the top of a long runup that usually signals more Bear.

Next gap down likely to be a runaway.

交易進行

Looks like we got a cup forming; I closed puts bought 10 each SPY and QQQ diagonal call spreads; let's see if we get a bounce. Still possible this could spark rally to new ATH; never goes straight down!

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Gosh market followed this idea pretty nicely. Futures greening up after midnite.

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Opening lower may be an exhaustion gap, we had initiation and runaway gaps on Mon & Tues, let's see!

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Yeah very modest selling in open most of the bears went pre-market IMO should close any shorts now when it bulls will be ferocious.

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Made nice day trade off the bull trap. This market now on the downtrend and follows my curve as projected nicely. Support is around 2880 -2860 box, to complete a wave 1 down impulse. Wave 2 will give a right shoulder into mid-late May and it might look like all rosy, expect a pretty high retrace, maybe 0.786 - 1.00 Fibo for a double top or high shoulder. Then the monster wave 3 sell in June. Will go off for 3-6 weeks and give a 5-10% correction, possibly a double bottom from 26 Dec. Forget about trade, the Chinese are inscrutable and obviously entering a long-term siege war. They only wait another year- election next year!

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Closed out all the longs just in time. Did not expect another big selloff so soon but Donald re-inserted foot-in-mouth. again overnight.

A very fine analysis here shows the narrowing wedge technical breakdown after 25 April; contrasts with prior behavior after similar breaks, and also notes that a huge relief rally could occur if Donald can get his hoof out of mouth, a tall order for him. Especially worrisome is the triple top in Dow with a clear H&S pattern over past 16 months, a topping formation:

marketwatch.com/story/the-us-stock-markets-uptrend-has-been-shattered-according-to-technical-analysis-2019-05-08?mod=mw_theo_homepage

Risk is really high, rewards are low. Treasuries pay near 3%.... downside in equities: >10%

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Reached the target and bounced. Closed shorts went long in AMD, INTC, QQQ going to wave 2 countertrend move up.

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PS It's a Cup & Handle intraday!

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Really gratifying when the price follows my chart projection. Made bank off this move. It did get to bottom rim of megaphone; next move? IMO room for one more push down then a relief rally; notice how the highs past 3 days form a down wedge, this will likely pivot off support around 280 at the red/green band interface, completing Wave 1 of mark-down impulse. We do not yet see public participation- this is early distribution phase, a 'D' wave with E to follow. Then the fun begins!

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Made another cup intraday IMO the selling pressure is weakening, lows today were retest of Thursday's prices and got a nice bounce out of there. May sell a bit more Monday but I wouldn't bet on it over weekend. Trump probly come out all rosy on Sunday nite so the stock he bought today will go up... manipulator-in-chief.

交易進行

Getting a B wave retracement, going on 2 days now; these rarely last more than a week, could only bull for 3-5 days, depending. Commerce reports were bearish today and it bulled on Mnuchin rumors after selling on the real news- looks like early signs of economic downturn. What kind of retrace to expect? IDK TBVH but I wouldn't bet on it getting a lot higher than it is now. Maybe another 30 pips on Sand P, maybe not. It's trading at .382 retrace as I write this.

I re-entered shorts today on all three major indexes. In June puts. Shorting weeklies as a hedge, worked out real nice today, took 90% of premium out of the shorts and rolled them up to a tighter spread. All the shorts expire Friday.

The trend is still down and it is a strong ABC wave. Gonna get ugly soon...

DaddySawbucks