At the Daily and 4H chart, there is a clear divergence from and Stochastics indicators confirmed by a strong sign of reversal from the peak with a very long wick (yellow circle).
This will occur in the next few days so I would caution everyone to jump into SUBBTC right now.
Looking at the levels, SUBBTC is playing with the 23.6% level on 0.00015000 satoshis, but knowing that we have a divergence it will likely go down the 38.2% level on 0.00012700.
Unless there is public interest or great news, it might go down to the next fib level at 50% on 0.00010500 satoshis.
However, I'm still long term on Substratum. I love their product!
This is just my opinion, not a financial advise.
Since we pierced through 61.8% levels, we might travel deeper to 78.6%
However, shouldn't you be drawing your retracements with the entire price action captured by the bars? You seem to be drawing it around the closes. That top candle has a big arse wick that would make a big difference.
I can't argue with where your 38% line is though, it does seem to have bounced off it.