Credit - TLT Long 2023

Idea for TLT:
- According to consumer expectations, US is already in a recession. Dow hit ATH through this, so a headfake is due.
- We have been patient, but Treasury auction today is a good turning point.
- Long Jan 20, 2023 145C for 8.60 debit

GLHF
- DPT

註釋

This may well be the last auction before cutbacks, and signal a top in supply. Advantageous to grab them now while nobody wants them. Simple supply and demand!

註釋

US10Y has topped at 1.666:

註釋

Short interest up 63% in 2 months, bond bears doubling down in their belief in the unreal (inflation), widow maker short squeeze here.

註釋

B-but muh i-inflation!

註釋

There is no doubt that those who are invested in the unreal (inflation) will be viciously squeezed:

註釋

Commercials are the most long UST in 3 years, while large speculators are equally short. Bonds are about to have an ungodly short squeeze. Goodbye inflation narrative.

註釋

Seems I am getting quite good at catching bottom ticks!