SPX500 vs TLT : Are you expecting a big than ever drop? When...

Just a fast idea about correlation between SPX500 (US500) and TLT.
I'm more bearish than bullish over Sp500, however I just find out TLT correlation with market. Just read more...

I was expected a major drop here in September, but seems not strong enough.
My other target is around March / April. Why? Because of Financial results.

Can we expect super good gains in a market that drained every stock reserve in 2 year where retails "buyed everything they can find, while at home?" I suppose no.

You simply can't sell a 10$ Toys for 100$. If you can't find enough supply, at least you can rise price a little to 15$, maybe 20$. But if before you where able to sell 200.000 pcs x 10$ = 2M$, now you only have 10.000 x 15$ = 150.000$. Freaky!
Can we expect a faster recover in production while there are production "bottle necks" everywhere? I suppose no.

If I need 200.000 toys, I must find them. But if production limit is 1000 toys for week, and there are no stock reserve and high demand, my order must be shared with others. Price will be rise a little. And if my production machine broke, I must wait for a spare part. And if I produce Spare Part I must wait for chip supplier to produce it. To many "bottle necks" everywhere.
Can we expect a fast FED tapering? Maybe not, will only accelerate collapse. So anyone will stay in silence, waiting ... for collapse.

BUT WAIT... WHY TLT? IS IT WORTH?
Maybe not so worth, but higher TLT prices means less buying interest on Governative Bond. Lower prices means more are buying TLT, and this means "standard stock market credibility" just slowing down, melting off. Reads : sell stock & buy bond / commodities.

As always is only a matter of "capital movement" not to HODL till die. Just learn from Pro. Small gains everydays just build more capital than HODL.

YES BUT MY BTC STORE VALUE IS GREAT! TO THE MOOOON!
Ok, free to believe this. Only ask your self if Pro will really trust on BTC as temporary Store Value (like GOLD is only temporary) or if... they are going to screw every small retail.

TO MAKE IT SIMPLE
Whatever will happen, Oil prices, Tapering, Yield Interest, BTC to the moon... from a perspective of "simple buy and sell goods" we are already screwed. We need time to recap production, to fill warehouse, to arrange product stock supply reserve.
Hope is oil price will no go up any further, hope is in some sensate economical intervention, hope is... in cypto decentralization Fomo anarchic mind set.
Ok... We are all screwed. No way, only matter of time.

ONE LAST THING...
Can you figure the "Black Swan" when will enter in the play field? Who or what will be the Jolly Joker for a complete decline?
Share your vision.

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This is not Financial advice. Only my idea. Feel free to share, comment or add missing information.
And why not? Will you consider to donate something for some other post like this? Just contact me.