A WARNING SIGNAL

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We may experience a significant return to volatility in the market if we get to the bedlam zone.

Inflationary pressures are back. Oil is rallying organically on no recent incremental news. Gasoline prices are making new highs for 2023. Markets are forward-looking and the disinflation narrative might have reached an apex on the most recent US CPI release.

US 10-year yields remain calm in a range, but if they take out 4.09%, there’s going to be absolute bedlam. US Initial Claims and GDP were strong this week and imagine what things are going to look like when manufacturing snaps back.

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