Treasuries are to blame
The fact that AAPL still trades at 0.5% div.yield means that the market still does not believe in rising yields. The market still has lots of work to do to force everyone to abandon the belief in low yields. Expect 5-8% for 10Y in the short term, and a repricing of all other assets.
Consider the implications for the broader market. Apple, as an example: moving to mere 2% div.yield would imply a 75% loss of value. Think what's going to happen to risk-parity funds of all flavors. Pension funds. Some of those are actually leveraged these days. A loss of 80% or more is not impossible. This is how prosperity turns into dust.
The crash that began on Feb 10 is not related to Ukraine at all. It's a worldwide event. Two bubbles will pop (Stocks and Debt) and one bubble will inflate one more time: the Dollar will shine.
I continue to be probably the only human on this planet to predict that the massive move that began in Feb will bring EURUSD to 0.86, USDJPY to 100 and SPX will crash to ~1500, all the while 10Y will be climbing to 5% or higher. Brace for impact.
Oh, and USDRUB should get to 250..350 before it becomes investor's heaven.
Consider the implications for the broader market. Apple, as an example: moving to mere 2% div.yield would imply a 75% loss of value. Think what's going to happen to risk-parity funds of all flavors. Pension funds. Some of those are actually leveraged these days. A loss of 80% or more is not impossible. This is how prosperity turns into dust.
The crash that began on Feb 10 is not related to Ukraine at all. It's a worldwide event. Two bubbles will pop (Stocks and Debt) and one bubble will inflate one more time: the Dollar will shine.
I continue to be probably the only human on this planet to predict that the massive move that began in Feb will bring EURUSD to 0.86, USDJPY to 100 and SPX will crash to ~1500, all the while 10Y will be climbing to 5% or higher. Brace for impact.
Oh, and USDRUB should get to 250..350 before it becomes investor's heaven.
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