Cycle Heatmap

Gm, the cycle heatmap says we are still early.

This idea is purely based on the 4 year boom and bust cycle theory.
We expect btc to bottom about 1 year before the halving and top at least 6 months but probably 9-18 months after the halving. So I adapt this theory to the total market cap and estimate a conservative 50% btc dominance to get an idea of the total crypto market cap targets of this new cycle.
We can also combine different cycle based models to create a heatmap.

- 140k BTC target as minimum conservative target
- 10x total target
- 1M BTC target
- trololol log regression aasasoft.org/investing/models/trololo.html
- log log price chart price.bublina.eu.org/loglog
- stock to flow lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
- halving en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

This allows us to track where we are in the big picture and identify mean reversion risks.

#dubious #speculation

註釋

zoomed in

註釋

Dip into the green area. If we believe in the cycle theory and that altcoins will move together with BTC, dips into this region could be a good long term entry. The lower it goes, the lower the risk of entering buy and hold positions.