The Total Market Cap, BTC and Altcoin Market appear to be breaking out of crucial long-term levels. Certain market conditions have to be met for either a bull-run trigger or bear-cycle continuation, based on the degree of economic stability and certainty in it. I'm going to discuss critical technical levels and their implications, as well as my fundamental views for the year.
Bad Outlook for Q3/Q4 of 2023:
Equity market health and controllable inflation would aid crypto development in the long run. So far the battle against inflation and stock market health have been promising. However, by considering the following 3 factors the outlook may rapidly change:
1) Consumer spending accounting for >2/3 of GDP and 2) currently being discouraged through prolonged high interest rates - amplify my positive GDP growth expectations = more inflationary pressures.
Technical Levels with fundamental evaluation:
I believe long-term levels are crucial for trend analysis. We're currently testing multiple levels simultaneously. Due to my pessimistic views for the upcoming months I am bearish in the short-run and bullish in the long-run. From current price level I'd expect +- 30% drop (below 20k), shown in figure 1. If we do go to the upside, we could see a 60% short-term price gain, presented in figure 2. Either way great volatility is to be witnessed.
Figure 1
Figure 2
I hope you took away some important points. Trade safe :)
Feel free to comment your opinion
Bad Outlook for Q3/Q4 of 2023:
Equity market health and controllable inflation would aid crypto development in the long run. So far the battle against inflation and stock market health have been promising. However, by considering the following 3 factors the outlook may rapidly change:
- Fading AI hype
- The end of the U.S. presidential election stock rally cycle, which occurs in the year after midterm elections (last midterms were in Nov 2022)
- In Q3 of 2023 (particularly August and September) there is historically more consumption due to the beginning of a new academic year, implying further inflationary pressures and more gov intervention
1) Consumer spending accounting for >2/3 of GDP and 2) currently being discouraged through prolonged high interest rates - amplify my positive GDP growth expectations = more inflationary pressures.
Technical Levels with fundamental evaluation:
I believe long-term levels are crucial for trend analysis. We're currently testing multiple levels simultaneously. Due to my pessimistic views for the upcoming months I am bearish in the short-run and bullish in the long-run. From current price level I'd expect +- 30% drop (below 20k), shown in figure 1. If we do go to the upside, we could see a 60% short-term price gain, presented in figure 2. Either way great volatility is to be witnessed.
Figure 1
Figure 2
I hope you took away some important points. Trade safe :)
Feel free to comment your opinion
