Total Crypto Market Cap H&S Invalidation and Forecast

9月9日

With a quiet week ahead of the CPI and PPI due out this week, it's a good time to look at the Macro chart structure.

Sometimes simpler is better, and I've had great success using simple formations like the H&S pattern, which beats Elliot Wave hands down most of the time.

In this case, we were looking at a potential inverse Head and Shoulders on the Total Market Cap last week, but that has now been invalidated leaving us with this new wedge formation and a new lower high trendline.

I think we have some unclear or negative economic data this week and likely see prices fall across the board and the TOTAL market cap here dip down into the buy range (Green boxes based on aggregate buy limit orders on the order books and using our Order Block Detector).

Then we rally into the FOMC and ahead of a possible 50 basis point rate cut surprise, and kicking off a rip-roaring Q4 October to December rally and off to new ATH's on BTC.

September is seasonally a down month, so I'd expect more chop until the above plays out.

And of course, new information = new decision, so we have to remail open to anything.

Some are calling for a re-test of the yearly open around 44k as Bitcion usually does re-test this level at least once during the year, and as of yet hasn't. But I think we'll hold 50k bitcoin on a closing basis and will be buying in the 50k - 52K range, as Bitcoin will likely lead the rally, followed by Solana and ETH.

Our multi-time frame radar indicator is mixed, so I'm waiting for this to turn Green and our other signals to also turn Bullish, namely our ERI and TSI (Early Reveral Indicator and Trend Strength Indicator - not shown).

We'll have to play it week by week and see what opportunities present.

Good luck trading, this has been a very difficult area to predict and forecast, and as we can see, there's still heavy sell pressure above.

However, on another chart study I shared with M3 members yesterday, there's a massive macro Bull-Flag formation on the TOTAL market cap, with a measured move of 4.8T if and when we can solidly break to new ATH.

Our weekly signals show we're oversold and poised to break higher soon, just like we saw in September 2023 and before the big rally we've been enjoying all year!

Like and comment below for more like this, and I'll do my best to keep you posted!