This Is It

已更新

Alright guys, this is it. I'll keep this shorter than my other written posts. Here we have the final chance for cryptocurrencies to begin a bull market in the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear. Zoomed in, you can see that this is the second time we've touched the long term trendline this week, and that it so happens to coincide with a very significant resistance/support flip from the ascending triangle breakout earlier this year.

What we also need to see is Bitcoin reclaim the 200d MA today (around $8250). In the last bull market, it never closed a daily candle below.

We're under it now, but there's plenty of time left. Something else to note: Nano/USD has held this horizontal support area since last August. Every time it touched these prices, it coincided with large moves to the downside for Bitcoin. If it doesn't hold, it won't look good for promising altcoins across the board.

The total crypto market cap (including Bitcoin) also appears to be just dipping below the long term uptrend, but it has done so before and bounced.

This is why there are several factors indicating that this can be the final shakeout move. But there is substantial risk for downside if these trends are broken. If they fall, ETH can head straight down to test the $78-100 support area, and perhaps even make a new low. It would also start to look like this year's rally was simply a failed second top, and the bubble will begin its true deflation now. This would probably coincide with selloffs in tech stocks as well, as I have reason to believe they're somewhat correlated. Trade carefully. This is just to show why, in hindsight, this very moment could end up being a great buy opportunity. It is not meant as financial advice. This is for speculative purposes only.

-Victor Cobra

註釋

We have now confirmed both the long term uptrend and downtrend channel as support. We have to see if the altcoin cap can now rally towards the top of the channel. A break in either direction from the channel will probably indicate our next major direction. Bitcoin is still finding resistance at the 200d MA, but it's encouraging that it hasn't dropped too far below it yet. We need to see a push up here, even if it's only a $200 move.

註釋

Bitcoin dominance will likely end this month red. To confirm a top, I'd like to see a bigger red candle, but this is still somewhat encouraging for the altcoin market.

註釋

Still holding the trend, according to how I have it drawn. I've revised my crypto market outlook to include a scenario where this breaks down but we still eventually enter a bull market (a little less grim than this post). We are also clearly in a downtrend channel. A break of this orange channel in either direction (excluding fakeouts) will probably tell us where we're headed.