Evidence Supporting An Enormous Altcoin Bull Run
已更新
This will be my second post in a pair of extensive written posts on the crypto market today, since I have a little bit of downtime. I should probably be using my time to work on some other things....but here I am. This is going to be one of my more well thought-out posts to date. Whether or not you think this is valid is up to you.
Anyway, everyone is really expecting many altcoins to die out, even established ones. I keep seeing it over and over again. Bitcoin maximalism as an overall market sentiment is extremely high. Is it time to be a contrarian? If you read my Bitcoin/overall market analysis from today, you'll see that I'm leaning slightly towards a scenario much like what happened in either November 2015 or June 2016, when Bitcoin hit the top of its long term bullish channel. Since alts have been slowly increasing since the beginning of the year, I think it's possible that we see something like what happened in July 2016, when the altcoin cap increased roughly 300% without Bitcoin moving an inch.
In the above chart, I've compared the total altcoin market cap with Bitcoin during the beginning of the last bull market. I'm a visual guy (I'm an artist), so it really helps me to do things like this. The red boxes show periods of Bitcoin upwards movement, while the green boxes show sideways consolidation. The first alt rallies occurred during these consolidation periods, but they eventually started following (and outperforming) Bitcoin. It did take a while for alts and Bitcoin to start syncing up. Alts didn't even follow Bitcoin at all on its biggest move up from the bottom in November 2015. Alts didn't start gaining massively on their ratios until AFTER Bitcoin dropped from the channel resistance in June 2016, bounced, and then started going sideways on lower volume. Last week, Bitcoin touched the top of that channel for the first time in this current cycle (you can see this when you zoom out). The reason why I think today is more comparable to July 2016, rather than November 2015 is that Bitcoin is much closer to its ATH, and alts have already been increasing a fair amount over the last several months, albeit at a slower rate. That means if history were to repeat, we'd see many alts go up massively once Bitcoin can stabilize somewhere around these levels (ideally a bit above 10K, or even above 11K). This could be today, tomorrow, or within the next two weeks. That initial July 2016 rally was followed by months of sideways action as Bitcoin dropped and consolidated, with alts continuing to increase on their ratios. That initial run also happened within just a FEW DAYS. That's right. You can clearly see that here:
History doesn't have to repeat of course, but if it did, this COULD be the last chance to buy alts with Bitcoin before they start to perform at levels not seen since 2017. This might indeed be the last point in time during this current bull market when alts will be lagging behind Bitcoin, rather than outperforming it. After that initial altcoin run in July 2016, the market didn't start going crazy again until early 2017, when Bitcoin broke its all-time high and Ethereum completely exploded. It should be noted that alts didn't start consistently outperforming Bitcoin until the previous all-time high was broken. After that (as you can clearly see) alts didn't really stop going up until the bubble peak in December 2017. What's also interesting to note is that we were close to the market top when alts and Bitcoin went on an extensive run TOGETHER (final red box) until Bitcoin topped out. This is the only instance on my chart with a much larger red box and smaller green box. Alts then continued up for a few weeks until Bitcoin formed the double top and finally everything started tanking. That was an entire year of insane gains. Whether or not history will repeat remains to be seen, but this is why I'm doing my best to be patient with my alts. I could be wrong. Maybe they'll never increase again, but I'd rather stay in and catch the quick moves than finally give up and watch it go up without me, leaving me only 30% of the coins I spent a year accumulating. I personally don't plan on selling certain alts until I start seeing some similar alt/bitcoin behavior akin to what happened at the end of 2017. Maybe this is unwise, but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.
Anyway, since much of this analysis already has been stuck in the past, here is what's happening right now. This is kind of what I'm speculating on happening here:
Also, here's what's going on with some specific alts:
XLMBTC is still in a multi-month falling wedge. Could break down as well, but I'm showing this anyway:
XRPBTC is sitting very close to a long term support, with still some room for further downside towards 2700-2800:
EOS holding bullish channel support against the U.S. Dollar, with potential targets around $11 and $20:
NEO breaking and holding above the bullish channel with a potential bullish target in the low $30's:
ETH also breaking and holding above the bullish channel with the possibility of retesting $360 and even breaking out towards $500-700. The purple squiggle is a speculative scenario I drew a while ago, when comparing ETH to post-dotcom bubble Amazon:
VET making a new 2019 high and sustaining above a higher low:
LINK going parabolic and holding above a broadening wedge, though further upside for that one remains to be seen. This one could also drop as the rest of the market goes up:
Likewise, there are some worrying signs for alts as well. It would be silly for me to present only the bullish scenario, as I've never done that in any of my analyses. Some alts like BNB and even BAT have broken down below long term support levels. It remains to be seen if other altcoins can do well while those two suffer, or if those two will have to rebound back above major supports turned resistance. I talked about BNB in a recent video (linked at bottom). Additionally, Bitcoin could prematurely break out of the bullish channel to the upside, which would be a deviation from the previous cycle. However, alts would not look bearish as a whole unless they broke down from their uptrend channel. Obviously this can happen, but there's even a decent amount of room for them to fall and still look okay. You can see that here:
This is certainly not financial advice. I've been frustrated (as a believer in certain altcoins) by the price action. Many others feel the same way, of course. A lot of people keep posting that alts are dead and that they've given up and sold into Bitcoin. People have been capitulating for weeks. It feels like the pain will never end....but as I said once on a post in Reddit when Bitcoin was still below
4K earlier this year (yes, I'm quoting myself):
"Look, I used to work in sales. When you want something from someone, you’re going to try your best to convince them to give it to you. Any market works the same way. Inciting fear near a bottom causes many people to unload their coins at once - capitulation. That’s when it finally reverses and all the people who got duped into selling low will be forced to buy higher.
The big players encouraged the euphoria at the bubble top, which convinced many people that they were getting good deals. It’s sales, plain and simple. That’s how it works.
With Bitcoin, it’s a dangerous game because the majority believes it will be worth more in the future. This means everyone will be fighting over cheaper prices. Whales have the ability to take a large amount of supply from the market, with no intention of selling any time soon. This is what allows for demand to outpace supply, which reverses the market, continuing long term price appreciation. Obviously could change, but there’s no reason to believe that, at this point."
The same goes for altcoins, particularly when they're at historical lows against Bitcoin. Some may indeed never return to previous highs. But I think new people in this market will be looking for solid projects to put their Bitcoin profits into. May I ask, what is the point of people saying alts will never increase again? Are they really trying to make other people money? Not so sure that's always their intention. Human nature says otherwise. Humans can be dark, greedy creatures. We delight in the downfall of others and love being correct while others are wrong. We relish in collecting a lot of something that others wish they had. We're collectors by nature. It was our desire to collect and explore that has ultimately led to the destruction of the environment. What person wouldn't want to have all the best altcoins purely for themselves? I think it's very possible that there are people with a large amount of Bitcoin just waiting to "collect" some of these promising projects. The narrative can easily be spun in favor of alts, just remember that.
Of course, there are other factors at play. Perhaps regulatory constraints and institutional involvement will make alts less desirable....but I also find that the harder it is to acquire something, the more valuable it becomes. I would also argue that the lower their liquidity and the more difficult they are to access...the faster they can increase in price. Again, these are all opinions and speculations. I'm making a lot of assumptions as well. I could be wrong, just as I've been for most of this year when I assumed alts would rise faster, sooner. Either way, I'm very excited to see how this all plays out. That's the fun of it all.
Sorry for the length, but I wanted to get my thoughts out there. Thanks for reading!
-Victor Cobra
Anyway, everyone is really expecting many altcoins to die out, even established ones. I keep seeing it over and over again. Bitcoin maximalism as an overall market sentiment is extremely high. Is it time to be a contrarian? If you read my Bitcoin/overall market analysis from today, you'll see that I'm leaning slightly towards a scenario much like what happened in either November 2015 or June 2016, when Bitcoin hit the top of its long term bullish channel. Since alts have been slowly increasing since the beginning of the year, I think it's possible that we see something like what happened in July 2016, when the altcoin cap increased roughly 300% without Bitcoin moving an inch.
In the above chart, I've compared the total altcoin market cap with Bitcoin during the beginning of the last bull market. I'm a visual guy (I'm an artist), so it really helps me to do things like this. The red boxes show periods of Bitcoin upwards movement, while the green boxes show sideways consolidation. The first alt rallies occurred during these consolidation periods, but they eventually started following (and outperforming) Bitcoin. It did take a while for alts and Bitcoin to start syncing up. Alts didn't even follow Bitcoin at all on its biggest move up from the bottom in November 2015. Alts didn't start gaining massively on their ratios until AFTER Bitcoin dropped from the channel resistance in June 2016, bounced, and then started going sideways on lower volume. Last week, Bitcoin touched the top of that channel for the first time in this current cycle (you can see this when you zoom out). The reason why I think today is more comparable to July 2016, rather than November 2015 is that Bitcoin is much closer to its ATH, and alts have already been increasing a fair amount over the last several months, albeit at a slower rate. That means if history were to repeat, we'd see many alts go up massively once Bitcoin can stabilize somewhere around these levels (ideally a bit above 10K, or even above 11K). This could be today, tomorrow, or within the next two weeks. That initial July 2016 rally was followed by months of sideways action as Bitcoin dropped and consolidated, with alts continuing to increase on their ratios. That initial run also happened within just a FEW DAYS. That's right. You can clearly see that here:
History doesn't have to repeat of course, but if it did, this COULD be the last chance to buy alts with Bitcoin before they start to perform at levels not seen since 2017. This might indeed be the last point in time during this current bull market when alts will be lagging behind Bitcoin, rather than outperforming it. After that initial altcoin run in July 2016, the market didn't start going crazy again until early 2017, when Bitcoin broke its all-time high and Ethereum completely exploded. It should be noted that alts didn't start consistently outperforming Bitcoin until the previous all-time high was broken. After that (as you can clearly see) alts didn't really stop going up until the bubble peak in December 2017. What's also interesting to note is that we were close to the market top when alts and Bitcoin went on an extensive run TOGETHER (final red box) until Bitcoin topped out. This is the only instance on my chart with a much larger red box and smaller green box. Alts then continued up for a few weeks until Bitcoin formed the double top and finally everything started tanking. That was an entire year of insane gains. Whether or not history will repeat remains to be seen, but this is why I'm doing my best to be patient with my alts. I could be wrong. Maybe they'll never increase again, but I'd rather stay in and catch the quick moves than finally give up and watch it go up without me, leaving me only 30% of the coins I spent a year accumulating. I personally don't plan on selling certain alts until I start seeing some similar alt/bitcoin behavior akin to what happened at the end of 2017. Maybe this is unwise, but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.
Anyway, since much of this analysis already has been stuck in the past, here is what's happening right now. This is kind of what I'm speculating on happening here:
Also, here's what's going on with some specific alts:
XLMBTC is still in a multi-month falling wedge. Could break down as well, but I'm showing this anyway:
XRPBTC is sitting very close to a long term support, with still some room for further downside towards 2700-2800:
EOS holding bullish channel support against the U.S. Dollar, with potential targets around $11 and $20:
NEO breaking and holding above the bullish channel with a potential bullish target in the low $30's:
ETH also breaking and holding above the bullish channel with the possibility of retesting $360 and even breaking out towards $500-700. The purple squiggle is a speculative scenario I drew a while ago, when comparing ETH to post-dotcom bubble Amazon:
VET making a new 2019 high and sustaining above a higher low:
LINK going parabolic and holding above a broadening wedge, though further upside for that one remains to be seen. This one could also drop as the rest of the market goes up:
Likewise, there are some worrying signs for alts as well. It would be silly for me to present only the bullish scenario, as I've never done that in any of my analyses. Some alts like BNB and even BAT have broken down below long term support levels. It remains to be seen if other altcoins can do well while those two suffer, or if those two will have to rebound back above major supports turned resistance. I talked about BNB in a recent video (linked at bottom). Additionally, Bitcoin could prematurely break out of the bullish channel to the upside, which would be a deviation from the previous cycle. However, alts would not look bearish as a whole unless they broke down from their uptrend channel. Obviously this can happen, but there's even a decent amount of room for them to fall and still look okay. You can see that here:
This is certainly not financial advice. I've been frustrated (as a believer in certain altcoins) by the price action. Many others feel the same way, of course. A lot of people keep posting that alts are dead and that they've given up and sold into Bitcoin. People have been capitulating for weeks. It feels like the pain will never end....but as I said once on a post in Reddit when Bitcoin was still below
4K earlier this year (yes, I'm quoting myself):"Look, I used to work in sales. When you want something from someone, you’re going to try your best to convince them to give it to you. Any market works the same way. Inciting fear near a bottom causes many people to unload their coins at once - capitulation. That’s when it finally reverses and all the people who got duped into selling low will be forced to buy higher.
The big players encouraged the euphoria at the bubble top, which convinced many people that they were getting good deals. It’s sales, plain and simple. That’s how it works.
With Bitcoin, it’s a dangerous game because the majority believes it will be worth more in the future. This means everyone will be fighting over cheaper prices. Whales have the ability to take a large amount of supply from the market, with no intention of selling any time soon. This is what allows for demand to outpace supply, which reverses the market, continuing long term price appreciation. Obviously could change, but there’s no reason to believe that, at this point."
The same goes for altcoins, particularly when they're at historical lows against Bitcoin. Some may indeed never return to previous highs. But I think new people in this market will be looking for solid projects to put their Bitcoin profits into. May I ask, what is the point of people saying alts will never increase again? Are they really trying to make other people money? Not so sure that's always their intention. Human nature says otherwise. Humans can be dark, greedy creatures. We delight in the downfall of others and love being correct while others are wrong. We relish in collecting a lot of something that others wish they had. We're collectors by nature. It was our desire to collect and explore that has ultimately led to the destruction of the environment. What person wouldn't want to have all the best altcoins purely for themselves? I think it's very possible that there are people with a large amount of Bitcoin just waiting to "collect" some of these promising projects. The narrative can easily be spun in favor of alts, just remember that.
Of course, there are other factors at play. Perhaps regulatory constraints and institutional involvement will make alts less desirable....but I also find that the harder it is to acquire something, the more valuable it becomes. I would also argue that the lower their liquidity and the more difficult they are to access...the faster they can increase in price. Again, these are all opinions and speculations. I'm making a lot of assumptions as well. I could be wrong, just as I've been for most of this year when I assumed alts would rise faster, sooner. Either way, I'm very excited to see how this all plays out. That's the fun of it all.
Sorry for the length, but I wanted to get my thoughts out there. Thanks for reading!
-Victor Cobra
註釋
Actually, this is a better representation (in terms of timeframe) for how I'm speculating things could play out in the coming weeks. Based on this, we still may have to be quite patient to see bigger returns on established altcoins: 註釋
Also, XLM had 15 months of sideways while Bitcoin increased 400% before it finally broke out by almost 600% within two months, and then almost 10,000% by the beginning of 2018. 註釋
Hold on, I need to revise my XLM figures. Wasn't thinking properly (I'm an artist, not a mathematician). XLM went from $0.001 to $0.06 in two months, which is a 6000% increase. XLM out performed Bitcoin by a factor of 10 throughout the whole bull market, even with Bitcoin getting a massive head start. XLM peaked roughly 1000X from its launching point, while Bitcoin "only" went around 100X.註釋
So far, things are shaping up nicely to play out exactly how I'd expect them to, leading up to a major jump for altcoins. Rememeber, this is not guaranteed by any means. It just so happens that Bitcoin did stall at 
12K and has since retraced on lower volume. The drop off in volume is one of the first signs I was looking for, in order for this to be a repeat of the June-July 2016 correction. Here, you can also see alts heading towards the bottom of their bullish channel while holding above the neckline support I've been talking about for months. 註釋
Some speculative squiggles for you. From this, you can see that we may have a period of low volatility (even for another week or more) before we see some alt gains. 註釋
June-July 2016 for comparison: 註釋
Very interesting development today. Even though it briefly headed above 
13K, Bitcoin price is still being contained in the zone where I'd expect it to fail, if the July 2016 comparison is going to play out. So far, so good. Remember, any sustained break of the orange channel, and I'll have to scrap this entire "roadmap" and redo it. 
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