Monthly Contracting Triangle Count

2021年6月14日

This contracting triangle with reverse alternation is probably the better count compared to my last chart, both are still possible but this is my new primary count because it can also be applied to BTC, ETH, and other cryptos. It also fits better on the higher timeframes and it explains why this drop was unusually violent and out-of-the-blue, which means it's likely to get retraced completely, and when the REAL bull run begins things will get a lot more exciting than they did this last run.

This is a very bullish count, but it implies we're still in the correction which began in 2018 and we will probably drift up/sideways for the next 9 months while wave-E finishes up, and most cryptos could even hit ATH this year. After wave-E is finished, TRX will probably begin its vertical journey towards $10+ in 2022. Most cryptos will probably follow a similar pattern of drifting up for the rest of the year and then going vertical in 2022.

My guess for the catalyst is SEC v Ripple going to trial and completing in Q2 of 2022, with a favorable ruling that Ripple's marketing of XRP was legal and not under the SEC's jurisdiction. A favorable trial outcome will allow titans of crypto like Ripple, Tron, EOS, and other developers with extremely deep pockets to begin massive marketing campaigns without fear of violating US securities laws.

It also seems likely that the crypto market has already reached the bottom because wave-a of E is 61% of the price of wave-C, but I wouldn't completely rule out a trip to under 6 cents until TRX moves above 10 cents.

2021年6月21日

註釋

As I said I wouldn't rule out a deeper decline, now a larger decline seems all but guaranteed. Strong support at 5 cents and 3.7 cents. Which one will hold I'm not sure, but after this drop I suspect we see a rapid recovery back towards the yearly highs.

2021年6月25日

註釋

As suspected, we hit the support around 5 cents and have begun a rapid recovery. We're also breaking out of the downward channel, that combined with the quick retracement of wave-C is a good sign that we've begun a new uptrend.

TRX and many TRC20 tokens are leading this bounce with the largest gains over the last few days.

This coincided with the release of the EIP 1559 testnet. Some are speculating this proposal will fail because miners will refuse the pay cut. This proposal essentially is copying what TRON already does by burning transaction fees instead of giving them to miners. This would be a big pay cut for ETH miners who earn a large part of the block reward from transaction fees.

2021年6月25日

註釋

This breakout may have just been a trap because the rest of the market is looking pretty bearish still. At the very least we'll probably make a higher low before continuing up.

2021年8月19日

註釋

Looks like we're in wave-b, and it will probably retrace all of wave-a. I also wouldn't be surprised if we go much higher than where I marked wave-b and we don't see a protracted sideways until 2022, but we'll have to wait and see what happens around that area.

2021年11月16日

註釋

It looks like wave-b has formed into a double combination and will probably be retraced about 80% which will take TRX to about 5.5 cents, assuming that it has already topped out.

It's possible it could go slightly higher before topping out but the chances of a large retracement back under 10 cents remains high.

2021年11月16日

註釋

Wave-b has likely topped and should be retraced around 80% because wave-b is a double combination, which puts our target at 5.5 cents for TRX in Q1.

This should then be followed by an incredibly large bull run as we end a 4 year corrective pattern, and a wave of new institutional money comes because of regulatory clarity.