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Trend still bullish 🔥. Focus on the Big Picture.

已更新

Greetings.

I'm bullish on TSLA. Don't let the news cycle or recent bearish sentiment obscure the "big picture." What we're currently experiencing is a reversion to the mean (average) price of TSLA based upon the current trend. When TSLA hit a high of $502.49, it was two standard deviations outside of the normal distribution of price. In other words, it was abnormally high, and therefore needed to pullback. This is normal market activity. In fact, the 21 EMA is at $393, which is the mean daily average price based upon one month of market activity (which is roughly 21 days). In addition, we see all the headlines about large institutional investors selling shares. Here's an open secret...Institutions are:

1. Securing profits.
2. Saturating the market with supply to drive price down, so they can buy the shares back at a cheaper price (Supply & Demand 101).
3. Creating short term fear through the news cycle in support of #2.

Here's what the technical analysis indicates:

1. Trend Meter: Weekly Trend is Category 3: Very Strong Bullish Trend. Don't trade against the larger trend.
2. Accumulation / Distribution: shares are being sold....but (only slightly) and not being dumped as it may seem.
3. Momentum Meter: Momentum remains strong on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts.
4. Reversals: I have not received any bearish reversal signals on the monthly, weekly, or daily charts.

Here's my theory:

1. EV market is the future. TSLA is the global leader. TSLA is also an energy company. Perhaps the upcoming battery event (#2) will include news about energy storage technology for residential.
2. TSLA will release positive news about some new battery capacity for the fleet of their vehicles on the upcoming battery day (22 Sep). Demand will instantly increase.
3. TSLA will release positive earnings on 27 Oct. Demand will increase even the more.
4. President Trump will win re-election in the USA. Stock Market will go BONKERS. TSLA price will head beyond the moon to Mars.
5. My Elliot Wave analysis is lacking (wait...this is a fact...haha). I need to study his theory more, but I took my first uneducated guess.

Happy Trading!

Disclaimer. My ideas are for informational purposes only. My ideas do not constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. You should not construe any such information or other comments as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, options and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Please exercise your own due diligence.

註釋

Updated Daily Chart.

1. The trendline (blue) now acts as support.
2. Next level of support is the bottom of the trend (~$285), which coincides with a 50% retracement from the start of the February 2020 uptrend.
3. Trend remains bullish.

註釋

Daily Update - 09 Sep 20

1. TSLA bounced off the 38% FIBO level (built using the YTD high/low), which suggests a very strong bullish trend. NASDAQ gave a bullish reversal candle today.
2. I anticipate TSLA will fill gap at $400.
3. GO TSLA, GO TSLA, GO!

註釋

14 Sep Update:

Today's move had plenty volume behind it, so I consider it a valid bullish move to the upside.

1. $400 Gap Filled. Next Gap at $445
2. Strong support at $340.
3. RSI is bullish
4. Trend remains bullish

註釋

16 Oct (1050 EST)

Caution

-TESLA would need to break outside the hourly channel with strong volume to continue the uptrend. If not, trend will likely decline in the short term