Tesla已更新 Tesla - Trading the Q1F's
Over the next 2-3 days I expect it to be both a Feast and Famine depending on your trading Strategy and watching the markets being not afraid to hit the sell trigger when opportunity presents itself for you to take profits off the table. Remember you want to trade the trends to put money in the bank and not just ride this stock up and down like a Yo-Yo.
So over the past 3 trading sessions we've overall had low volume trading days that started off on really high volume involving some large buys as well as some Bears showing up to Short the stock early preventing a nice run up into the Q1F's. That I don't understand because it would be in their best interest to let it run and then Short Sell once it's achieved a high range around $197.00 - $203.00 .... However, the overall expectation is not to surprise us by any great stretch this time around so I will be happy to reach a price target I've set at $192.00 with a sell order open till the end of the day on Thursday
On the daily chart I've shown the main trend and several lines of support and resistance any of which are levels to potentially sell at (or even short). Right now though the low volume tells me that the Bulls Aren't Fully Committed but neither are the Bears as there are several revenue streams unaccounted for asides from EV sales and for that reason the stock is somewhat trending neutral but is positioned right now to move higher short term, and by short term I'm speaking 2-3 days tops before the Bears Kill it.
If we reach the Party Face I certainly hope you are selling into the uptrend and conversely hope you have long since sold before we reach the sad face. At any sign of a price reversal on Thursday am with mediocre to just OK revenues the stock price will tank like on other occasions such as March 1st this year. Of course all of you know that.
What I'm seeing from my main indicators that I can't show you here because I don't have a paid membership is that the 21 day moving avarage stopped us cold currently at $189.53 today and will also act as resistance going forward. Just beyond that is the 50 day ma currently at $192.60 and the 100 and 200 day ma are almost equally above and below us at $171.58 and $213.55, neither of which should come into play this week.
Today I have 3 bullish indicators with a positive MA/EMA Cross 10/10, as well as a rising Stochastic RSI and slightly positive CMF for Buyers over Sellers. Once again I have a reasonable & humble expectation to get out around $192.00. Of course anything can happen but this is one of the most highly volatile, manipulated and shorted stocks in the markets. Trade well and take your profits as I do expect a potential 10-15% retracement between now and Q2F's before we fly back above
200 again in July...
So over the past 3 trading sessions we've overall had low volume trading days that started off on really high volume involving some large buys as well as some Bears showing up to Short the stock early preventing a nice run up into the Q1F's. That I don't understand because it would be in their best interest to let it run and then Short Sell once it's achieved a high range around $197.00 - $203.00 .... However, the overall expectation is not to surprise us by any great stretch this time around so I will be happy to reach a price target I've set at $192.00 with a sell order open till the end of the day on Thursday
On the daily chart I've shown the main trend and several lines of support and resistance any of which are levels to potentially sell at (or even short). Right now though the low volume tells me that the Bulls Aren't Fully Committed but neither are the Bears as there are several revenue streams unaccounted for asides from EV sales and for that reason the stock is somewhat trending neutral but is positioned right now to move higher short term, and by short term I'm speaking 2-3 days tops before the Bears Kill it.
If we reach the Party Face I certainly hope you are selling into the uptrend and conversely hope you have long since sold before we reach the sad face. At any sign of a price reversal on Thursday am with mediocre to just OK revenues the stock price will tank like on other occasions such as March 1st this year. Of course all of you know that.
What I'm seeing from my main indicators that I can't show you here because I don't have a paid membership is that the 21 day moving avarage stopped us cold currently at $189.53 today and will also act as resistance going forward. Just beyond that is the 50 day ma currently at $192.60 and the 100 and 200 day ma are almost equally above and below us at $171.58 and $213.55, neither of which should come into play this week.
Today I have 3 bullish indicators with a positive MA/EMA Cross 10/10, as well as a rising Stochastic RSI and slightly positive CMF for Buyers over Sellers. Once again I have a reasonable & humble expectation to get out around $192.00. Of course anything can happen but this is one of the most highly volatile, manipulated and shorted stocks in the markets. Trade well and take your profits as I do expect a potential 10-15% retracement between now and Q2F's before we fly back above
200 again in July...註釋
Well the Bears took control on a very low volume trading day and managed to push the stock lower before the Q1F's have even been released. We already know the EV sales were moderately better than expected and the Market reacted on March 1st telling you what they thought at that time. Now we need to find out how their next large Revenue Stream did, their Clean Energy Distribution Sector as well as the Charging Stations, however with Hefty Price Cuts to the EV's, how badly will that have impacted on their Profit Margins? If Tesla drops from 16.5% down to 12% that is HUGE and the stock will dive because Tesla is Judged overall on the EV division plain and simple. To be honest at this point I am reducing my expectation of a run because even on good news the Bears will Pile on Hard. If we make it back to $187.00 or $188.00 I think we should consider ourselves fortunate, take your profits and call it a day. I for one expect that I may take a loss of up to 3k on this trade but in doing do will preserve my profits to buy back in lower. This is all about Managing Risk and should you hold on longer you run the risk of losing a fair bit more because even with a potential for a small bounce on Thursday I firmly expect the Bears will short big taking the price down to $176.00 by Tuesday. You can always look for a better opportunity to buy back in another day on a much better entry point. I am Very Bullish on Tesla for their Long Term outlook and Projected earnings but that is still a ways off.註釋
April 19th at 7am and the Price has already dropped $4.00 Premarket. So what prompted this early drop other than we were now expecting the Bears to Jump all over this and Short Sell Tesla... I attribute this to simple Economics and the fact that Tesla once again has provided us with a Very Innappropriately Timed release for additional Price Cuts on their EV's. Barron's has even written an article that if you want a 25% discount on a Tesla to just wait! So one of the first things you learn in economics is The Law of Diminishing Returns that is definitely coming into play here. They are dropping their prices to increase sales but at the same time their Gross Margins are shrinking as well. What I'm most interested in is by how much those Gross Margins have shrunk. The other big unknown is Musk had stated on March 1st that they were focused on Cost Reductions to maintain their High Margins.... So we shall soon find out how thats working out however it may not have been happening fast enough to impact the first quarter.
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