GEX Analysis & Options “Game Plan”

4月9日

🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment



🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES

• Spot: 221
  
  
• Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart)
  – This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive.
  
  
• Put Support: 200
  – A large negative gamma position has accumulated here, making 200 a strong support level. If it breaks, the downside may accelerate.
  
  
• Call Resistance: 400
  – A major long-term “call wall” where a significant amount of OTM calls are concentrated. It’s more relevant to LEAPS; currently far from spot, so not a realistic short-term target.
  
  
• Call Resistance #2: 300
  – A medium-term bullish objective, still above the 200-day MA. You’d need to be strongly bullish to aim for ~300 by May (e.g., going for a 16-delta OTM call).
  

Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels:
– There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260. These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows.



🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS)

• A) Upside Continuation / Rebound
  – If TSLA closes above 225–230, the next target is 240–250 (transition / gamma flip).
  – If it breaks above 250 and holds (e.g., successful retest), market makers may shift to “long gamma,” fueling a quicker move to 260–270.
  – Resistance: 250, 300, with an extreme LEAPS-level at 400.
  
  
• B) Downside Move / Bearish Break
  – If price dips below ~220 and sustains, the next targets are 210–200 (major put wall / negative gamma).
  – If 200 fails, negative gamma may magnify the sell-off. It’s an extreme scenario but still on the table given high IV and macro/geopolitical risks.
  – Support: 210, 200 — likely stronger buying interest near 200, possibly a short-term bounce.
  – The options chain suggests near-term hedging via puts for this scenario.
  
  
• C) Chop / Sideways
  – If TSLA stays in 210–230, market makers (short options) might benefit from high IV/time decay.
  – Negative GEX, however, can trigger sudden moves in either direction; caution is advised.
  

🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS)

• NET GEX = -61.97M (negative territory) suggests longer-dated positioning is also put-heavy or carries notable negative gamma.
  
  
• HVL / pTrans = 250 is a key pivot; cTrans+ = 400 is distant call resistance. Between these levels, there’s a mix of put/call dominance.
  
  
• If Tesla undergoes a fresh growth phase (AI, robotaxi, energy storage, etc.) and clears 250/300, 400 could become the next significant call wall — but that’s more of a multi-month horizon.
  

🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment)

• 1. Short-Term Bearish
  – If you’re bearish and expecting TSLA to test 220–210, consider a bear put spread or net credit put butterfly (lower debit) to leverage high IV.
  – Targeting 200, but keep in mind negative gamma may accelerate downside movement.
  
  
• 2. Medium-Term “Contra” Bullish (bounce to 250)
  – If GEX suggests a bounce off 210–220, consider a bull call spread (e.g., 220/240) or a net debit call butterfly (220/240/250).
  – Be mindful of sudden swings, as we remain in negative gamma territory.
  
  
• 3. Longer-Term Bullish (>3–6 months)
  – A call butterfly with upper strikes around 300–350 offers capped debit and higher potential payoff if a bigger rally materializes.
  – A diagonal spread (selling nearer-dated calls, buying further-out calls) exploits elevated front-end IV.
  
  
• 4. Neutral / Range-Bound
  – If TSLA stays in 200–250, you could use Iron Condors (e.g., 200/260) to benefit from time decay and any IV collapse.
  – Exercise caution: negative gamma can generate abrupt, directional moves, making a neutral stance riskier than usual.
  

🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE”

• []High IV & Negative GEX: TSLA has a track record of large swings. Negative GEX can intensify sell-offs, while forced hedging might trigger rapid rebounds.
  []Preferred Structures: With expensive premiums, spreads (vertical, diagonal) and butterfly configurations generally fare better than plain long options (less vulnerable to time decay).
  
• Potential Catalysts: AI announcements, Autopilot breakthroughs, new product lines, and macro changes can swiftly alter market dynamics. Keep tracking GEX updates and news flow; TSLA tends to respond dramatically to fresh developments.
  

🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300, while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.

4月11日

交易結束：目標達成

Cannot hold HVL level, still in negative gamma territory, let's see what we will have next week. Have a great weekend