Tesla’s price structure has taken traders on quite a journey, and after peeling back the layers, it's clear that both bullish and bearish possibilities demanded attention — but only one holds more weight for now.
The first sign of life came at the March low, where price made a lower low (218.13 to 214.25), but RSI formed a higher low. This classic bullish divergence paved the way for a strong rally, confirming that Wave W had likely ended with a sharp zigzag, and Wave X was beginning to unfold. The bounce from 214.25 extended into a flat structure, which completed near 367.71 — a textbook ABC flat with the internal wave b forming a higher low at 223.17.
Initially, this structure looked like the beginning of a bullish impulse. The drop to 273.22 perfectly tagged the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and it was tempting to label it as Wave 2 of a new impulse. However, that bullish view began to crack when the bounce from 273.22 appeared to be a three-wave move, not a clean five-wave impulse. More importantly, Wave 4 of this move overlapped the price of Wave 1 — a key violation that rules out a typical impulse and instead suggests the move was a leading diagonal.
This view is supported by the RSI, which revealed bearish divergence as price climbed from 350.00 to 367.71 — price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high, indicating fading momentum. That divergence, combined with the overlapping structure, tilts the probability toward a bearish scenario now unfolding as Wave Y.
If this view plays out, the decline from 367.71 may be the start of Wave a of Y in a final zigzag correction. The projected path would take Tesla lower in a 5-3-5 structure, with potential support near or below the March lows. The bearish view remains valid as long as price stays below 367.71 — the clear invalidation point. A move above that level would force a reevaluation and potentially revive the bullish case.
At this point, the market has spoken — and it's whispering bearish. The structure favors caution unless bulls reclaim momentum with strength.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
The first sign of life came at the March low, where price made a lower low (218.13 to 214.25), but RSI formed a higher low. This classic bullish divergence paved the way for a strong rally, confirming that Wave W had likely ended with a sharp zigzag, and Wave X was beginning to unfold. The bounce from 214.25 extended into a flat structure, which completed near 367.71 — a textbook ABC flat with the internal wave b forming a higher low at 223.17.
Initially, this structure looked like the beginning of a bullish impulse. The drop to 273.22 perfectly tagged the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and it was tempting to label it as Wave 2 of a new impulse. However, that bullish view began to crack when the bounce from 273.22 appeared to be a three-wave move, not a clean five-wave impulse. More importantly, Wave 4 of this move overlapped the price of Wave 1 — a key violation that rules out a typical impulse and instead suggests the move was a leading diagonal.
This view is supported by the RSI, which revealed bearish divergence as price climbed from 350.00 to 367.71 — price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high, indicating fading momentum. That divergence, combined with the overlapping structure, tilts the probability toward a bearish scenario now unfolding as Wave Y.
If this view plays out, the decline from 367.71 may be the start of Wave a of Y in a final zigzag correction. The projected path would take Tesla lower in a 5-3-5 structure, with potential support near or below the March lows. The bearish view remains valid as long as price stays below 367.71 — the clear invalidation point. A move above that level would force a reevaluation and potentially revive the bullish case.
At this point, the market has spoken — and it's whispering bearish. The structure favors caution unless bulls reclaim momentum with strength.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
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