TSM Weekly Options Setup – Overbought with Max Pain Pressure (20

📉 TSM Weekly Options Setup – Overbought with Max Pain Pressure (2025-06-11)
Ticker: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor)
Bias: 🔻 Moderately Bearish (Short-Term)
Setup Type: Max Pain Reversion Play | Confidence: 65%
Expiry: June 13, 2025 | Entry Timing: Market Open

🔍 Technical & Sentiment Snapshot
📍 Price: ~$214.10
📈 Short-Term Trend (5-min): Strong bullish momentum, price > EMAs, MACD positive
📉 Daily Chart: RSI ≈ 80.79 → extremely overbought, price above upper Bollinger Band
🎯 Max Pain: $205 → possible gravitational pull
💬 Options Sentiment: Heavy open interest at $205 Puts; cautious tone across models

🧠 AI Model Consensus Breakdown
🔹 Bullish Bias (Short-Term Momentum)
• Grok/xAI & Llama/Meta: Favor riding remaining upside with $217.50 Calls
• Justification: Intraday signals strong, MACD bullish, RSI not peaking yet on M5

🔹 Bearish Bias (Daily Overextension & Max Pain)
• Gemini/Google & DeepSeek: Favor reversion to $205 using $205 Puts
• Justification: RSI > 80, price extended, high put OI & max pain align around $205

✅ Recommended Trade Plan
🎯 Direction: PUT
📍 Strike: $205
📅 Expiry: June 13, 2025 (Weekly)
💵 Entry Price: $0.63
🎯 Profit Target: $1.20 (+100%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.30 (–50%)
📈 Confidence: 65%
📏 Size: 1 contract
⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open

⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations
• 🚀 A breakout above $215.50 could invalidate the bearish thesis
• ⏳ Theta decay is aggressive in weeklys – move must come quick
• ⚡ Intraday bullish signals are still strong → this is a contrarian trade
• 🛡️ Use disciplined stops and size conservatively to manage risk

💭 Will TSM fade off its overbought highs or keep ripping?
📉 Put or 📈 call — what’s your play? Drop your take 👇