5/9/24 - $u - careful here on valuation/ guide - i pref. sub $20

2024年5月9日

5/9/24 - vrockstar - the question for me here is more about "at what point would i buy it" - let's be honest guys it's not cheap. they have debt. they don't make much $, a lot of stock comp. RBLX on the mgn doesn't help the factor this wk. the expectation into print is defn low and guidance is all that matters - which is hard to bite on given all the other software that even if want to provide a +ve update are err'ing on the side of conservatism.

so back to the question - what to pay? let's imagine for a moment '24 really is trough EPS and we can sit on that '25 EPS of a buck as gold. what's this worth? 20-25x? well that's where we are today. 5-6x sales too and again, we have to 1) get thru this trough year and 2) hope it doesn't get worse and 3) we can all agree on 2025 (the market is just that - some agree some dont).

all in, if i owned it... i'd probably cut size if not all together and look for a better entry. i do think something just shy of 20$ is probably a decent medium term risk reward. mid to high teens, say $17-18 and i think you can expect bigger and committed buyers to come in and could size up (all things equal). pls be safe on this print.

2024年6月20日

註釋

"Updating" this idea in order for it to get flagged as most recent on my page:

So the stock is likely nearing buy region - or at least interest at $15 handle. With tape (index) still hot but this name languishing, this will get destroyed in a risk off scenario to perhaps $12-13?

For me it's not a must own, and given the above reaction post EPS + tape that needs a pullback, i'd be more interested if we break $14 and let's assess.

I'd be tempted to think the tech is unique enough, though, where take out or chatter starts to pick up sooner than later.

What do you guys all think - when should we be nibbling here?

V