Onajourney

Using the Unemployment Rate as a Contraindicator

FRED:UNRATE   民間失業率
This is my first time using TradingView, or posting here so please forgive any flaws or failings in my format. This chart highlights the U.S. Unemployment rate (bottom section) compared to the S&P 500             (top section). The Unemployment Rate also has a 12-month moving average overlaying it. I’m posting this idea as much to be an inquiry as anything. But, it appears to me that at least with respect to recent bull and bear markets looking at the unemployment rate and it’s 12-month moving average crossover has been helpful in deciding whether to significantly increase or decrease equities as a percentage of asset allocation. Various studies indicate that asset allocation is the number one indicator of long-term performance. Are you mostly in, or mostly out of the right asset classes at the right time?

With the unemployment rate peaking near the beginning of this bull market and having declined throughout, I am convinced that it bares close watching now that it is approaching the 4% level. A lot of other bull markets have ended just as unemployment rates bottomed. If we can identify the inflection point, or even estimate it within two or three calendar quarters it could significantly impact our long term performance by helping us reduce equity exposure either before the next bear market, near the peak, or within a reasonable time after it has begun and before the damage is too severe. I can see the crossover is not precise for fine tuning timing, but does give some rough context and insights into when risks are lessening or building. I welcome any other thoughts, ideas, feedback, or suggestions that may help expand the discussion and insights related to unemployment as a market indicator and look forward to hearing them…
ZH 繁體中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
AR العربية
首頁 股票篩選器 外匯篩選器 加密貨幣篩選器 全球財經日曆 如何運作 圖表功能 網站規則 版主 網站 & 經紀商解決方案 小工具 圖表庫 功能請求 部落格 & 新聞 常見問題 幫助 & 維基 推特
個人檔案 個人檔案設定 帳戶和帳單 我的事件處理號碼 聯絡客服 發表的想法 粉絲 正在關注 私人訊息 在線聊天 登出