Upwork a calm before the storm? Will we have a massive Bull run?

已更新

Hi guys! This is a Macro analysis on Upwork (UPWK). Macro meaning larger timeframe aka the 1 week in this instance.

Alot of stocks are down fromt heir previous tops. Which means potentials for longterm gains for many names are possible. I try to make sense if things have the technical signs to buy or not.

For UPWK -> some interesting signs were observed. It was observed in comparison to previous patterns seen in the price action and indicators. Note however, past data does not reflect certainty. It does not need to repeat as is.

But again the resemblance is in your face! And it is something to keep in our minds.

Starting with price.

Notice the "Major Resistance" black trendline.

Price has been historically above it or below it with major moves seen.
Above it = Massive Bull Run
Below it = Downtrends followed by consolidation.

Being relatively new public company, we only have 1 data point to use.

Now notice the previous green box marked.
Red trendline shows the downtrend in price, followed by a black trendline that highlights the beginning of the uptrend before massive bull run.

Before we get ABOVE the "Major Resistance" trendline, we consolidate for a period of time in the orange rectangle. That then catapults prices significantly higher.

Notice Volume is seen to spike as well.

Also notice the indicators added:
STOCH RSI during price actions time inside the orange rectangle (consolidation) moves down.
As soon as it crosses Bullish, prices shoot out of the consolidation zone and above the Major Resistance.

Notice too the MACD, the pattern here is that it stalls here becoming almost flat, with histogram bars turning light green, as it turns Dark Green and Blue line curves up, this signals the price to shoot out of consolidation, moving above "Major Resistance".

Fast forward to our current data. We are repeating almost to the tee, the same pattern.

Will it be the same? Or will we be rejected?
Well, we need 3 signs to occur.

STOCH RSI must cross BULLISH (Blue line above orange line)
MACD needs Dark Green bar print with increasing size and Blue line to Curve UP
VOLUME Must start to increase/ spike

Without these 3 signals it is more likely we get rejected here!

Another thing to observe is the consolidation or rectangle pattern. Remember its never a good idea to trade within any chart pattern.
A confirmed break above will determine uptrend.
A confirmed break down will cause rejection.

Very important to continue to observe UPWK.

Ill be sure to update as things become clearer!
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.

Stay tuned for more updates on HOOD in the near future.

If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.

DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.

註釋

MACD are momentum indicators. Major moves usually happen when there is a Bullish cross and that it moves ABOVE the 0 lvl. If it occurs on the 1 week. Moves can be very powerful. Just FYI.

註釋

Quick update.

on the 1 day timeframe, we have had a massive selloff with a ENGULFING Bearish Candle.

This reduces the probabilities of an eminent break UP out of the consolidation zone.

Owing to the fact that this Resistance level is a strong one. Watch for test of support at the lower border of consolidation zone or a break down out of consolidation.

Next level would be the Black trendline below us to act as support. ANd a potential re-test of the resistance zone. (in my opinion this scenario is now more likely)

Note VOLUME is on a decline supporting weakness and inability to move any higher.

Notice also our momentum indicators.

MACD has lost momentum with the print of a light green histobar.

STOCH RSI has crossed bearish moving downward.

Lets continue to observe UPWK.

註釋

We have broken down below consolidation zone. Watch the black trendline below for support test.

註釋

We have broken down and confirmed below consolidation range.

And are now testing support at this black trendline below.

Important area to watch. Confirmation of support may lead to a bounce back up.

As seen in previous history interacting with this line.

註釋

Quick update on UPWK.

This is on 1 week timeframe.

Currently it seens as though we are stalling, moving sideways.

Watch the rectangle drawn. Any break below with confirmation will lead to a continuation of the DOwntrend.

What we want is price to move back above trendline.

Consolidation signs are seen on MACD as well. With last 3 histobar prints to be same size. size increase of red bar -> would of lead to more bearish momentum

This gives me info that bulls are fighting hard to keep price up.

STOCH is also at oversold area. Price will continue sideways or lower, if we continue to stay here.

A bullish cross ABOVE 20 lvl , is key for a momentum shift to Bullish.

But all in all, if we stay below trendline. We will continue to to test $10 support.

If that breaks, we will travel $7.81 lvl, the bottom of our macro rectangle pattern.

註釋

Update on Upwork.

Things are starting to look like momentum maybe trying to come back in.

Up about 12% this week. Engulfing Bull candle.

May be giving us signs of demand.

Currently moving ABOVE 50 SMA.

BUT Alot of resistance ABOVE from:
21 EMA
100 SMA
Previous Support trendline now resistance trendline

Ideally, need to break above and confirm Support on all Resistance.

We do have to look at it one step at a time. But crucial is to get back ABOVE Support trendline

More importantly, Breakout ABOVE the Green zone is also Crucial. Ideal area to take positions is still the confirmation of a breakout ABOVE Green MACRO consolidation zone.

Now the indicators.

STOCH RSI has had a BUllish cross. We need it to continue Up ABOVE the 20 lvl.

MACD is losing its Bearish momentum by the print of the light red histobars. A Bullish Cross ABOVE 0 lvl, would be extremely bullish case. This would provide momentum needed to break out of Green zone.

Now Look to the RSI, RSI still has alot of work to do for me to be COnfident. We need a new trend aka HIgher high print of RSI at the very least. As you can see we are very far still from doing so.

If we get all 3 Bullish scenarios from Indicators aka confluence. This would be ideal scenario.

For now however, i do believe we have the potential to RE-TEST the Upper resistance line of the Green zone.

Stay vigilant and keep observing.

註釋

We broke out of the short-term consolidation only to be REJECTED

By 100 SMA
Resistance overhead

Also we were ABOVE the Upper Bollinger band indicating a potential Sell zone.

We then had 4 consecutive days with Large bearish candles.

We are now back into the Consolidation range.
Below all Moving Averages

UPWK lacking conviction of demand for the time being.
Look for Oversold signals on indicators and test of Support.
Keep an eye on interaction with Bollinger Band midline for test of Support.