US 10Y TREASURY: will the Fed cut?

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The jobs market data were in the spotlight of investors during the previous week. The major impact came from the non-farm payrolls posted on Friday, which was better than anticipated with 139K new jobs added. The jobs market in the US continues to hold strongly, which impacts investors anticipation of potential Fed's rate cut during the course of this year. Namely, as the Fed has a dual mandate of keeping inflation at targeted level and exercising full employment, the stronger jobs market might impact Fed's decision to hold reference interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time. The CME FedWatch tool is currently anticipating 100% odds that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at their June meeting. The FOMC June meeting is scheduled for 17th-18th.

The jobs data triggered a strong reaction on the US Treasury market. The 10Y US benchmark yields were pushed to the upside on Friday, from 4,32% on Thursday up to 4,50% on Friday. Usually, after such a strong spike in prices or yields on the market, there is time when the market will consolidate, in which sense, there is a probability that yields will ease to some extent during the week ahead. Still, the market nervousness might continue to the lower extent until the FOMC meeting.

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