The US10Y is forming an interesting pattern that suggests a move higher is likely. I decided to compare the general trend movement to that of SPX. The green arrows represent my future base case. However, should the US10Y break to the upside of its current pattern now, the blue arrows represent that. The future picture is always fuzzy, but I’m estimating US10Y is around 4.5% and SPX around 3580 in March/April.
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