US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025

📊 Chart Context

Current Yield: \~4.50%
Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones.

📉 Key Technical Observations

Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise)

TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance.
TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone.
TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection)

Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession)

Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand.
Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement
Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6%
Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8%
Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6%

Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways):

Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones
These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation.

Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks

Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone.

Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone.

These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events.

Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases:

Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence.

Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones.

After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure.

These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent.

Macro & Fundamental Context:

1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025.

2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower.

3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets.

4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up.

Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out):

↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3)

* Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens.
* Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity.
* Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto.
* Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts.

↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4):

* Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal.
* Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles.
* DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins.
* Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities.

Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone):

* Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges.
* Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3.
* Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation.

Related Reference Charts

TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly