Pivotal Point for Rates. Lower Rates Can Mean Lower Equties.

I know the idea of lower rates / lower equities sounds silly by classic theory but if you close social media and go through the historic events you'll see it's more common.

When rates are rising we usually rally for at least 3-6 months and more commonly somewhere like a year.

The classic sell signal at the top of big trends has been price selling off a bit while rates topped and the crash event has always come with a dropping of rates.

And that makes this all very interesting.

I've previously described how we're at a major inflection point for trend decision in SPX.

We have a pending short signal forming in yields.

Butterfly extension into the top and we're now into the critical fib supports levels.

If we can not make a low on the 76 (Close to where we are) we might be due to see a sharp drop in rates.

Ever since the dot-com bubble, falling rates after parabolic markets have been a really big red flag for trouble to come.

This would also link in with the BTC trend failure thesis.

At this point it's only rational to expect BTC to be risk correlated and under perform the indices in risk off situations. This has been the recurring theme since 2018.