yield inverted, usually a signal for recession, but there is a case that the recession delayed
It's during the recession of 1992, 2009, and now it should happen this year, but the chance has dropped from 70% to 30%
delayed recession moght be delayed for 4 year or until yield making higher high
after making higher high will see recession within 2 years, rest for 1 year then bottomed for 2 years
So we need to see
1. higher high 10-year yield in 2026-2027
2. recession within 2 years (2028-2029)
3. Resting for 1 year (2030)
4. bottomed yield for 2 years (2031-2032)
It's during the recession of 1992, 2009, and now it should happen this year, but the chance has dropped from 70% to 30%
delayed recession moght be delayed for 4 year or until yield making higher high
after making higher high will see recession within 2 years, rest for 1 year then bottomed for 2 years
So we need to see
1. higher high 10-year yield in 2026-2027
2. recession within 2 years (2028-2029)
3. Resting for 1 year (2030)
4. bottomed yield for 2 years (2031-2032)
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