Not long ago, it was inverted by more than 100bps. Today, the inversion is about 40bps. As we all know, once it emerges from inversion, i.e. un-inverted, that is when we start counting to the next RECESSION. On average, it is 4 months. You can see it in the above chart. FED will soon cut rates.
Once un-inversion occurs, market will again do an adjustment/re-pricing exercise to all assets.
As you may already know now, the FED says there is NO RATE CUT this year. In fact, there is a possibility that there is one more +25bps to go. But you should know the market reaction by NOW. The market is signaling that the FED is done with rate hikes. You can see it in the Fed Fund Futures. In fact, market is now expecting a rate CUT in the next FOMC!!! and with more to come.
So now we wait for the un-inversion to occur. I think it is coming soon.
Also note that DXY is much higher than compared to 2008, meaning there is a BIG possibility that there is much more to FALL???
And possibility that DXY will continue to FALL until when the market sense that the FED is done with rate hikes. Once the EFFR touches 0.00%, that is when the DXY will start rising again.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Once un-inversion occurs, market will again do an adjustment/re-pricing exercise to all assets.
As you may already know now, the FED says there is NO RATE CUT this year. In fact, there is a possibility that there is one more +25bps to go. But you should know the market reaction by NOW. The market is signaling that the FED is done with rate hikes. You can see it in the Fed Fund Futures. In fact, market is now expecting a rate CUT in the next FOMC!!! and with more to come.
So now we wait for the un-inversion to occur. I think it is coming soon.
Also note that DXY is much higher than compared to 2008, meaning there is a BIG possibility that there is much more to FALL???
And possibility that DXY will continue to FALL until when the market sense that the FED is done with rate hikes. Once the EFFR touches 0.00%, that is when the DXY will start rising again.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
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I am sure you have all been seeing this on the US10Y - the 100MA is going to drop below the 200MA very soon. A market repricing would then occur.Our focus would then shift to the US03MY and see how it goes. When 03m drops below the 100MA, we need to get ready.
Good luck.
註釋
US01MY is dropping really fast. It is below EFFR and also the 100MA. Just a moment ago, it was at 200MA and dropped below it. Looks like market is really edgy now. Our focus now move on to the US03MY. If it starts to move below 100MA and 200MA, then lets prepare.註釋
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