UST 10Y yield on a climb towards 2%

2021年11月3日

I don't trade Treasuries but it's important to keep track of the yield, especially for the USD and if you trade xxx/jpy crosses. The 10 year yield is currently hammering out a complex pattern as wave b in a larger correction, where the last sub wave is expected to reach the 2% area, maybe slightly below, maybe slightly above, before it heads down towards the zero bound - if my count is correct. I expect that to be reached around the 2021/22 change but possibly it will take longer.

2021年11月3日

註釋

It looks like Tradingview has a bug of some kind as it doesn't honer to publish a single chart when you use a multi frame setup, like 4 in this case. So here is the single chart this idea is about.

2021年11月15日

註釋

UST10Y yield seems to have completed 5 smaller sub waves up here on 1h as wave 1, so maybe 3 waves drop back in to lows of wave iv as 2 before even higher rates materialize.

2021年11月19日

註釋

Rates falling as a result of the latest Covid scare, but be aware of the potential for a brutal turnaround once the present H&S patter has played out.

2021年11月24日

註釋

Solid impulsive move in UST 10Y yield, should reach 1.70 at least but probably higher still. Nothing moves in a strait line though so we may need to give it some time.