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It seems like "everybody" these days is saying we’re going into recession.
So: are they right?
I’ve covered the markets and the economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people — or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers — were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent.
And if so many people believe that a recession is inevitable does that make it, well, inevitable? Or does it mean that a recession won’t occur? Or that any recession will at least be mild in nature? Ask this question enough ways and we're quickly into late-night dorm territory: What even is the economy?
But our primary economic problem right now is clear: inflation is running at 8.6% and the Federal Reserve is fighting this by raising interest rates. What caused this bout of inflation is mostly COVID-related, while the war in Ukraine added supply chain challenges and commodity pressures on top.
So: are they right?
I’ve covered the markets and the economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people — or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers — were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent.
And if so many people believe that a recession is inevitable does that make it, well, inevitable? Or does it mean that a recession won’t occur? Or that any recession will at least be mild in nature? Ask this question enough ways and we're quickly into late-night dorm territory: What even is the economy?
But our primary economic problem right now is clear: inflation is running at 8.6% and the Federal Reserve is fighting this by raising interest rates. What caused this bout of inflation is mostly COVID-related, while the war in Ukraine added supply chain challenges and commodity pressures on top.
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