Daily Chart (Macro View):
• Bearish divergence: RSI is at 47.38 and turning down — no strong bullish momentum.
• Recent bounce is sharp but came after a massive drop, suggesting a dead cat bounce or retracement.
• MACD remains heavily bearish (-836), showing underlying weakness despite the current bounce.
• Price recently rejected a key resistance near 40,850, aligning with previous support-turned-resistance levels.
15-Min Chart (Medium-Term):
• RSI is at 78.76 — overbought territory.
• Price surged parabolically, forming potential exhaustion.
• MACD shows very high positive values (672.341), usually precedes a correction.
• Potential bearish divergence between price and MACD.
3-Min Chart (Entry Timing):
• Price has stalled at the top, consolidating after an extreme spike.
• MACD and RSI are curling down.
• Ideal for timing a short entry.
⸻
Trade Idea: SHORT US30
• Entry: 40,850 (current resistance zone + psychological level)
• Stop Loss: 41,200 (above key recent highs / invalidation of setup)
• Take Profit: 39,450 (near broken structure & moving average support on lower timeframes)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
• Risk: 350 points
• Reward: 1,400 points
• RRR: 4:1 (excellent)
⸻
Fundamental Context (Supporting the Short Bias):
• Dow is rebounding amid broader market uncertainty (e.g., Fed rate trajectory, inflation prints).
• No strong economic catalyst justifying a sustained breakout to new highs — suggests technical bounce rather than trend reversal.
• Rising yields or a hawkish Fed outlook could reintroduce selling pressure.
US30
• Bearish divergence: RSI is at 47.38 and turning down — no strong bullish momentum.
• Recent bounce is sharp but came after a massive drop, suggesting a dead cat bounce or retracement.
• MACD remains heavily bearish (-836), showing underlying weakness despite the current bounce.
• Price recently rejected a key resistance near 40,850, aligning with previous support-turned-resistance levels.
15-Min Chart (Medium-Term):
• RSI is at 78.76 — overbought territory.
• Price surged parabolically, forming potential exhaustion.
• MACD shows very high positive values (672.341), usually precedes a correction.
• Potential bearish divergence between price and MACD.
3-Min Chart (Entry Timing):
• Price has stalled at the top, consolidating after an extreme spike.
• MACD and RSI are curling down.
• Ideal for timing a short entry.
⸻
Trade Idea: SHORT US30
• Entry: 40,850 (current resistance zone + psychological level)
• Stop Loss: 41,200 (above key recent highs / invalidation of setup)
• Take Profit: 39,450 (near broken structure & moving average support on lower timeframes)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
• Risk: 350 points
• Reward: 1,400 points
• RRR: 4:1 (excellent)
⸻
Fundamental Context (Supporting the Short Bias):
• Dow is rebounding amid broader market uncertainty (e.g., Fed rate trajectory, inflation prints).
• No strong economic catalyst justifying a sustained breakout to new highs — suggests technical bounce rather than trend reversal.
• Rising yields or a hawkish Fed outlook could reintroduce selling pressure.
US30 交易結束：目標達成
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